lunes, 10 de marzo de 2008

McCain-Romney: ¿Condenados a entenderse?

Para esta semana está previsto que el Senador John McCain nombre al encargado de dirigir en los próximos meses el proceso de selección del candidato republicano a Vicepresidente. En su articulo de esta semana para el Weekly Standard, el siempre bien informado Fred Barnes apuesta por el Gobernador Mitt Romney para VP. Su teoría es que sería muy arriesgado ir con un nombre que no haya sido todavía puesto a prueba a nivel nacional, como es el caso de otros Gobernadores que se están barajando. También insinúa algo novedoso. El entorno del Presidente Bush estaría dejando caer que Romney es la mejor opción. Sólo habría un problema, al parecer. Se cree que McCain no siente mucha simpatía por Romney. The Veepstakes

(...) He has the right idea in mind. McCain thinks three vice presidential picks from the recent past were wise: Republican Dick Cheney in 2000 and Democrats Joe Lieberman in 2000 and Al Gore in 1992. They were nationally known political heavyweights who passed the most important test. They were accepted almost instantly as ready to replace the president if necessary. And they had no significant drawbacks.

The list of plausible presidents is short. Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Tom Ridge, and Joe Lieberman qualify. That's about it. There are a number of popular Republican governors--Charlie Crist of Florida, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mark Sanford of South Carolina, Haley Barbour of Mississippi--but they fall short of Cheney-Lieberman-Gore stature. It's not their fault, but it's nonetheless true.

So how about Lieberman in 2008? He's a pal of McCain, a brave backer of the war in Iraq, and now the most prominent Democratic supporter of McCain's presidential bid. He would surely enhance McCain's appeal to independents and moderate Democrats. He's a political adult.

But he's no Zell Miller. Lieberman is a liberal on domestic issues, including abortion. McCain already has trouble with conservatives and picking a Democrat would make things worse. Lieberman would probably subtract more votes from the McCain ticket than he'd add.

So would Giuliani and Ridge. True, Giuliani was a hero of 9/11 as mayor of New York, and Ridge, a former Pennsylvania governor, was President Bush's first homeland security chief. But both are pro-choice on abortion and would horrify social conservatives, an indispensable part of the Republican coalition. Giuliani or Ridge might prompt a third party pro-life presidential challenger.

Fred Thompson, the ex-senator from Tennessee and now a TV actor, is also a close friend of McCain. If he'd run a more spirited presidential campaign of his own this year, he'd be the obvious pick for running mate. But his campaign was dreary and disappointing. McCain needs someone more vibrant and upbeat.

That leads to Romney. He has run a vigorous national campaign and been vetted by the press and his opponents for the Republican nomination. These are very strong pluses. A pick who produces unhelpful surprises, as Geraldine Ferraro did in 1984 (her husband's business deals) and Dan Quayle did in 1988 (his National Guard duty), is exactly what McCain doesn't need. Romney is a known quantity.

Romney has three other add-ons. He's acceptable to conservatives and especially to social conservatives, who disproportionately volunteer as ground troops in Republican presidential campaigns. He's unflappable in debates. With the downturn worsening, the economy may surpass national security as the top issue of the campaign. And after years of success as a big time player in the global economy, Romney understands how markets work. He could shore up McCain's admitted weakness on economic issues.

Romney has allies in the Bush wing of the Republican party. President Bush favors him as McCain's veep. Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, preferred Romney over McCain in the primaries, but never endorsed him publicly. Karl Rove, the president's political strategist, has hinted that he considers Romney to be McCain's best running mate.

(...)Romney thus appears to have the best ratio of virtues to drawbacks. But there's just one problem: McCain doesn't like him. Just how important compatibility is--that is something McCain will have to decide. (...)

4 comentarios:

JoJosho dijo...

See Here or Here

Jordi Coll dijo...

Genial. Con los demócratas nominando a gente de NY o Illionis, McCain no necesita poner nadie del sur para asegurarlo.

Cormac Milius dijo...

Es una buena opciòn. El asunto regional yo creo que no tiene mayor problema porque McCain es del Oeste, la zona que sustituye al Sur en determinados casos. Recordemos que Reagan, otro del Oeste llevò a Bush, que sòlo era de Texas en la foto del carnet de conducir, todos le veían como un hombre de New England, de hecho perdió las primarias en su Estado de adopción.

Anónimo dijo...

Es una buena opciòn. El asunto regional yo creo que no tiene mayor problema porque McCain es del Oeste, la zona que sustituye al Sur en determinados casos. Recordemos que Reagan, otro del Oeste llevò a Bush, que sòlo era de Texas en la foto del carnet de conducir, todos le veían como un hombre de New England, de hecho perdió las primarias en su Estado de adopción.