John Fund publica hoy en el Wall Street Journal un dato alentador para John McCain de cara a la elección general de noviembre. En el caso de perder Ohio -el estado ganado por Bush en 2004 que más probablilidades podría tener de cambiar de color en 2008-, le bastaría a McCain con mantener el resto del territorio Bush 04, y ganar el pequeño estado de New Hampshire, donde cuenta con altos niveles de popularidad, para lograr los 270 votos electorales necesarios para llegar a la Presidencia. Getting to 270
(...) All of this plays out in the Electoral College map that is the key to victory in November. One candidate or the other must win at least 270 electoral votes. The assumption has been that Democrats have an advantage because they can supposedly win every state John Kerry took in 2004 plus Ohio, which has fallen on hard economic times and seen its state Republican Party discredited. That would give the Democratic nominee at least 272 electoral votes.
But Mr. McCain's rise to the GOP nomination throws that calculation out the window. He is the only potential GOP candidate who is clearly positioned to keep the basic red-blue template of how each state voted in 2004 intact and then be able to move into blue territory.
Let's assume that Ohio goes to either Mr. Obama or Ms. Clinton. It's at least as likely that Mr. McCain could carry New Hampshire. The Granite State went only narrowly to Mr. Kerry, a senator from a neighboring state, and Mr. McCain has unique advantages there. New Hampshire elections are determined by how that state's fiercely independent voters go, and Mr. McCain has won over many of them in both the 2000 and 2008 GOP primaries. He spent 47 days in New Hampshire before this year's primary and is well-known in the state. If Mr. McCain lost Ohio but carried New Hampshire and all the other states Mr. Bush took in 2004, he would win, 270-268. (...)