martes, 12 de febrero de 2008

A vueltas con el efecto Bradley

Susan Estrich reflexiona hoy sobre el famoso "efecto Bradley" -en la imagen, Tom Bradley- que se ha manifestado en estas primarias en estados como New Hampshire, California, New Jersey o Massachusetts. Pone en duda que Barack Obama sea el candidato más competitivo para noviembre sólo porque los sondeos nacionales así lo indiquen. Según Estrich, la manifestación leve del "efecto Bradley" en el proceso interno demócrata, podría ser una señal que avisa de un problema que entre el electorado general sería más agudo. El riesgo existe. Race and the Democratic Party

(...)A funny thing keeps happening to Barack Obama on his way to victory against Hillary Clinton.

It happened in New Hampshire. It happened again in Nevada. It happened last week in California, Massachusetts, New Jersey and even in New York.

It's not easy to figure out, but it deserves to be addressed.

In the days leading up to the voting, all anyone talks about is the wave of support for Obama, the momentum flooding in his direction, the crowds like they've never seen, the power of the unexpected endorsements -- whether from the Culinary Workers' Union in Nevada or the Kennedys (as in Ted, Caroline, and Maria Shriver) in California and Massachusetts.

(...) Two words - New Hampshire. And New Hampshire it was.

It's not that Obama didn't do well, of course he did. He did very well.

But, California turned out to be as clear-cut a victory for Hillary as most people thought it would be two weeks earlier. The Latino and women's vote stayed with Hillary.

New York was a romp. New Jersey was easy. Even Massachusetts -- the most liberal state in the nation, where Obama won the endorsements of both Senators, Kennedy and Kerry, not to mention the newly elected African American Governor, Deval Patrick, even Massachusetts was Clinton country.

(...) No one doubts, or at least no one who is honest does, that both racism and sexism come into play as people decide between Clinton and Obama, but could it be that people are more willing to admit that they won't vote for the woman than that they won't vote for the black?

If this is happening even among us good Democrats, what does that say about Obama's strength in a general election? Not pretty questions. Not a fair world.

But for Democrats who want to win, these are questions that must be addressed. (...)