domingo, 22 de agosto de 2010

Más ruido en torno a Daniels y Thune

Vía e-mail me ha llegado este interesante comentario recogido en foros republicanos con lo que sería una estimación sobre el punto en el que se encuentra la carrera por la nominación presidencial republicana de 2012 a la espera de los primeros movimientos visibles:

(...) "Republican heavyweights seem to be going in 2 particular directions: President Bush, Vice President Cheney and close friends like Richard Lugar and Governor Haley Barbour (Chairman of the Republican Governors Association) seem to be lining up behind Mitch Daniels while the Senate and House leadership, such as Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn, Jon Kyle, and Eric Cantor seem to be lining up behind John Thune.

The word is Daniels and Barbour confer daily, so I can't imagine they are both running, at least not as two legit contenders. Perhaps one would run to pave the way for the other, but other then that why would 2 close friends who converse daily launch into a competition against one another that could leave the nomination to someone else? Perhaps Daniels low profile is part of the plan, as Barbour lays the groundwork, not for himself, but for Daniels. It's not hard to see Barbour as manager or chairman of a Daniels campaign.

Thune, however, is being positioned to run by the party leadership in Washington. This budget reform he is pushing now follows other strategic policies that have been given to Thune by the powers-that-be. His strong push against TARP and his fight to pay the money back is clearly being used to make up for his TARP vote, aiding his future run. His conceal and carry amendment is another strategic policy, designed to help win over the NRA. The behind the scenes push for Thune is similar to how the Democrat leadership worked in secret to push Obama into the race.

These 2 I think are becoming the real frontrunners because there is the most establishment activity around them. Romney and Pawlenty are working over time to win over the people who seem to already be aligning with Daniels and Thune. Romney's fundraising is what keeps him in the discussion, but the money comes from a small group of wealthy donors with business ties to Romney's days at Bain, and his multi-pronged funding network allows those donors an end around, so they can donate far more to several PACs then just one. This creates the illusion of big time support, when it's really just a clever funding trick designed to woo the establishment. Pawlenty is mirroring Romney, attempting to out-work him and convince the powers that he is the alternative.

Huckabee is outside of this loop, relying almost entirely on his evangelical supporters to organize on his behalf, like Focus on the Family and the Family Research Council and many others. He has enhanced his network since 2008, but lacks the money to credibly challenge these establishment forces. Evangelical domination of the smaller state caucus systems is Huckabee's only potential strength, though with more evangelicals in the race, that could change.

Palin has a sizable online operation and will rely on a populist movement and Tea Party machinery for organization. But she, like Huck, has no establishment backing. She also sports the worst polling numbers of any national republican figure, and seems distracted by her private sector interests. Gingrich has as many establishment supporters and he does establishment enemies, and is seeking to co-opt the populism of Palin and the Tea Parties to make up for this. Unlike Huck and Palin, Gingrich has a powerful fundraising operation and other connections that are independent of the establishment. American Solutions is the biggest 527 in the country, even larger in scope then the SEIU. Gingrich could actually become the most powerful 'outsider' in the field, with populist cred, powerful funding, and a large organized staff.

The wild card in all of this remains Jeb Bush, who could probably unite the Daniels/Thune supporters behind him as well as the Bush-friendly evangelical groups that dominate Huckabee's network. Bush could likely galvanize more support behind him more quickly then any other candidate. But will he get in..." (...)