lunes, 25 de octubre de 2010

La importancia estratégica de las cámaras estatales

La semana que viene también se renuevan las cámaras legislativas estatales en muchos estados. No son un objetivo menor porque en ellas se decidirá la redistribución de los distritos electorales en base al censo de 2010. Tendrán el poder para modificar los límites geográficos de los distritos, de modo que el partido que los controle podrá ajustar esos límites en la relación escaño/votos que más le convenga. Quitar un poco de aquí y meter un poco de allí para que el disrito sea más fácil de ganar en el futuro. Esos cambios pueden perpetuar el control del partido mayoritario sobre la Cámara de Representantes en la próxima década.

Associated Press nos lo explica:

GOP poised to win redistricting supremacy, too

(...) Down-ticket races could dilute Democrats' influence for next 10 years.

WASHINGTON — The Republicans' expected gains next week go way beyond Congress. The GOP could capture new Senate or House majorities in a dozen to 18 states — along with critical new power to redraw district maps and influence elections for a decade to come.

Three of the biggest prizes are New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All three states are expected to lose seats in Congress as a result of the 2010 census, and that's sure to ignite boundary fights. A party's congressman on the wrong end of redistricting can find the district he's represented for years no longer exists.

Democrats have hopes, too. They aim to take away state Senate control in Michigan and Kentucky and the House in Texas and Tennessee. Texas would be a particular victory, since it seems likely to have four more seats to divvy up under the new census. But none of the analysts contacted by The Associated Press predicted the Democrats would succeed in any of those states.

Both houses in Florida, a state that's expected to gain two seats in Congress, are likely to remain under GOP control. Continúa (...)