martes, 19 de octubre de 2010

Cámara: ventaja del GOP se mantiene sólida

Una semana menos para las elecciones, y pocas variaciones en el Generic Congressional Ballot de Rasmussen y Gallup -preferencia de los votantes por un partido u otro en las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes. Rasmussen otorga a los republicanos una ventaja de 9 puntos (48% - 39%). Y Gallup les da una ventaja de 5 puntos (48% - 43%) entre votantes registrados y entre 11 y 17 puntos (53% - 42% y 56% - 39%) entre votantes probables (likely voters) dependiendo del modelo de participación.

Comparación con 2006 (gran victoria demócrata), 2002 (pequeña victoria republicana) y 1994 (gran victoria republicana):

(...) Gallup polling from the prior four midterm elections shows that significant movement can, but does not always, occur in the final month before Election Day. This was most pronounced in 2006, when the Democrats’ 23-point early October leads among both registered and likely voters dwindled to 11-point and 7-point leads, respectively, by the final pre-election week.

In early October 2002, the Democrats led by five points among registered voters and by one point among likely voters. In the final poll, they maintained a five-point lead among registered voters, but trailed Republicans by six points among likely voters — marking a seven-point swing in the race.

In the year that perhaps most closely parallels today, 1994, the Republicans led the Democrats in mid-October polling by 3 points among registered voters, and by 12 points among likely voters. In the end, the Republicans tied the Democrats among registered voters and led by 7 points among likely voters. (...)