Cámara: ¡Oberstar en apuros!

Una encuesta de SurveyUSA muestra al anciano Congresista demócrata Jim Oberstar en empate técnico con su rival republicano. Oberstar lleva 36 años ocupando su escaño y es el presidente del Comité de Transportes y Obras Públicas de la Cámara de Representantes. Su distrito, el 8º de Minnesota, no elige a un republicano desde 1944. Que Oberstar esté teniendo por primera vez en su vida una elección disputada (algo que no tuvo en otros años malos para los demócratas como el 80 o el 94) puede ser el mejor indicador sobre lo que puede pasar el martes en las elecciones a la Cámara.

(...) DFL congressman Jim Oberstar, accustomed to winning with 65% or more of the vote in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, finds himself running even with Republican challenger Chip Cravaack, heading into the final weekend of the campaign, a new SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis shows. Today, it’s 47% Oberstar, 46% Cravaack, a result within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.

Oberstar holds almost all Democrats, his challenger holds almost all Republicans, but Independents in 2010, as they are doing in congressional districts across the country, break 5:3 Republican. Oberstar has an advantage among women, but the Republican has an offsetting advantage among men. Voters 50 and over favor Oberstar by 10 points; voters under 50 favor Cravaack by 14 points. If younger voters turn out in greater-than-usual numbers in this election, Cravaack will win. Those who rarely vote in midterm elections but who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote in this year’s contest back the Republican 5:4. Those who vote more frequently are divided. Voters who say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than they have been in prior years strongly back Cravaack; those less enthusiastic or no more or less enthusiastic than in the past strongly back Oberstar. (...)