Cámara: por dónde empezar la noche del 2 de noviembre

Chuck Todd (NBC) nos cuenta en qué distritos debemos fijarnos a primera hora de la noche electoral para prever las dimensiones del avance del GOP en las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes.

(...) *** How to spot a GOP wave: On Election Night, which takes place eight days from today, we'll likely be able to tell very early if Republicans are on the verge of taking back the House -- and possibly more. Polls close completely at 7:00 pm ET in five states with a handful of key races: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Virginia. (And we’ll begin to see returns in Indiana at 6:00 pm ET, when many polling places close in the state.) Let’s start with IN-9, which has become the quintessential swing district because Rep. Baron Hill (D) lost the seat in ’04, but won it back in ’06 and was re-elected in ‘08. This race is No. 42 in our House rankings -- right about the number the GOP will need to take back the House (because Dems will likely pick up two to four seats). So if this race is called for Hill’s challenger, Tea Party-backed Todd Young, you know it’s going to be a good night for the GOP.

*** Looking at IN, GA, and KY: Another place to watch is GA-8, because if Republicans are winning it, they could very well be on their way to a gain of 50-plus seats. Rep. Jim Marshall (D) won that district with just 51% in 2006 and 57% in ‘08. The other early House contest to watch is in KY-6, which could forecast a big GOP tidal wave if Republicans are winning it -- or are even running close. The congressman representing that district is Ben Chandler (D), who won his previous contests with 65% (in ’08) and 85% (in ’06). Other races to watch in that first hour: GA-2, IN-2, SC-5, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, and VA-11. And closing at 7:30 are the key races in North Carolina (NC-2, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11), in Ohio (OH-1, OH-6, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18), and in West Virginia (WV-1, WV-3). If Republicans are winning a majority of these 20 races, say hello to Speaker John Boehner. (...)