sábado, 23 de octubre de 2010

Buenas señales para el GOP en el voto por adelantado

En Ohio:

(...) The Hamilton County Board of Elections has done a good job of providing detailed early voting numbers for this election and referencing back to previous elections so we can properly compare where we're at.

So far this year, 16,309 Republicans have returned their absentee ballots. 13,019 Democrats have returned theirs.

In 2008 with the same number of days to go before the election, 15,772 Republicans had submitted their ballots and 20,432 Democrats had submitted theirs.

In other words, at this point in time, more Republicans are turning out in Hamilton County this year than turned out for the presidential election at the same point of time.

And Democrats? Their turnout has reduced by 36%, or about what would be expected in a midterm election.

But Republicans? They are doing the unexpected. They are outperforming what they did in 2008. Pretty amazing.

What makes the Republican advantage so much more impressive? Per the Plain Dealer, Democrats enjoy a 62/38 registration advantage in Hamilton County. (...)

Y en otros estados (impresionante lo de Florida):

(...) The shift in partisan turnout has ranged from Republicans gaining 4.2 percentage points from the 2008 numbers (West Virginia) to 27.4 percentage points in the 2008 numbers (Florida).

(The stunning figure is that 52.8 percent of the more than 778,000 early votes in Florida this year come from registered Republicans.)

Colorado’s early vote is 7.1 percentage points more Republican.

Iowa’s early vote is 10.2 percentage points more Republican.

Louisiana’s early vote is 25.9 percentage points more Republican.

Maine’s early vote is 13.3 percentage points more Republican.

North Carolina’s early vote is 14.9 percentage points more Republican.

In Clark County, Nevada, it is 7.1 percent more Republican; in Washoe County, Nevada, it is 11 percent more Republican.

“The average of these states show that early voting has shifted from a D+16.6 partisan split to a D+1.7 partisan split for a Republican gain of +14.9% since 2008,” Charlie concludes. (...)