ME - Gov: desencantados con los demócratas

La mayoría de analistas políticos y páginas web dedicadas al tema colocaban la carrera para Gobernador de Maine en la columna de los "tossup" o "Lean Democratic". Hoy nos sorprende un sondeo de Public Policy Polling que coloca al candidato republicano 14 puntos arriba. El mismo sondeo señala que los que desaprueban la gestión del Presidente Obama superan en 7 puntos a los que lo aprueban, y los que se oponen a su reforma sanitaria superan en 9 puntos a los que la defienden. Son números precoupantes para un estado de Nueva Inglaterra.

Todos dábamos por hecho que los dos escaños de Maine en la Cámara de Representantes estaban a salvo para los demócratas, pero si el ambiente político que refleja el sondeo es cierto, no estaría de más que el DCCC les ofreciera un poco de cobertura. Nadie pensó que valiera la pena hacer sondeos así que no hay referencias.

PPP: Big Lead for GOP in Maine

(...) To the list of states where things are looking dreadful for Democrats this fall you can add Maine: Republican Paul LePage leads Democrat Libby Mitchell 43-29 in PPP's first look at the race with independent Eliot Cutler pulling 11%.

The thing drivings the GOP poll advantage in Maine are the same we're seeing everywhere: a unified Republican base, a lack of interest from Democratic voters, a strong GOP lean with independents, and the specter of an unpopular Democratic President and Governor hanging over the heads of the party's candidates.

(...) The same depressed Democratic interest that helped sink the party in the Massachusetts Senate election, as well as last fall's races for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia, is showing itself in Maine. We find those likely to vote in the state supported Barack Obama by a 7 point margin in 2008, in contrast to his actual 17 point victory there. That enthusiasm gap contributes a lot to the margin of LePage's lead but make no mistake- with him winning 76% of McCain voters and Mitchell at only 52% with Obama's he'd be in the lead even if the electorate looked the same as in 2008.

Democrats have an uphill battle in this race and it's another reminder that the party's in trouble in some places no matter how blue they've been the last few election cycles. (...)