McCain: Northeastern Strategy

Anil Adyanthaya, un abogado de Newton Upper Hills, Massachusetts, se pregunta por escrito si John McCain puede ser competitivo este año en su estado, con Obama como adversario. La pregunta viene al hilo de lo que ya comentábamos ayer, la asombrosa fortaleza de McCain -tratándose de un republicano- en algunos estados del Noreste que Obama perdió en las primarias demócratas.

Considero poco realista pensar en una victoria de McCain en Massachusetts. Pero sí creo que el sólo hecho de que se plantee ese supuesto tiene gran significación. No es que McCain deba aspirar a ganar estos estados. Debe aprovechar su competitividad en ellos para forzar al candidato demócrata -siempre que sea Obama- a dedicar tiempo y recursos a asegurar lo que en los últimos años ha sido considerado como el patio trasero de todo candidato demócrata, manteniéndolo así alejado de otras regiones del país.

Llevar la batalla a los estados ganados por John Kerry hace cuatro años. Obligar al Senador Obama a dedicar sólo tres días en los últimos dos meses de campaña a realizar una gira por estados como Massachusetts, New Hampshire o New Jersey ya puede ser un gran avance. Tres días perdidos que pudo haber dedicado enteramente a Ohio, Florida o Missouri. Así se ganan las elecciones presidenciales en un territorio tan amplio como los Estados Unidos. Y esas maniobras de momento parecen estar al alcance de McCain.

Can McCain Win Massachusetts?

(...) Of the five Democratic candidates who won Massachusetts, three (Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Al Gore in 2000) could fairly be described as centrist Democrats, while two (Michael Dukakis in 1988 and John Kerry in 2004) were liberal Democrats. Dukakis and Kerry were, of course, Massachusetts-grown presidential candidates, so it remains uncertain how Massachusetts voters would respond to a liberal candidate from outside the state. The early indications are that Massachusetts voters are not favorably disposed to such a candidacy, as Hillary Clinton, a centrist Democrat in the mold of her husband, carried the state's primary by over 15 points over Obama.

In Massachusetts, unenrolled voters can vote in either party's primary. So it would seem that in a race against a Republican, the independents who voted for Clinton in the primary would simply shift their support to Obama. Unfortunately for Obama, such a scenario is not guaranteed with McCain as the Republican candidate. McCain is simply a more appealing candidate to independents than Obama is.

One of the main selling points of the Obama campaign is his alleged ability to transcend politics and "bring the country together." But his bipartisan efforts thus far have largely been focused on the "easy" issues - for example, peace in Darfur and securing conventional weapons stockpiles. These are noncontroversial topics in the sense that they do not break down along party lines, and it required no great courage or ability for Obama to work with Republicans on them.

The next Democrat who criticizes Obama for working with Republicans on these issues will be the first. Most of the time Obama is a stalwart Democrat. According to Congressional Quarterly, he has voted with his party on approximately 97% of the party-line votes that have taken place during his time in the Senate. This result should be no surprise, of course, given his National Journal ranking as the most liberal U.S. senator.

Now contrast this with McCain, who has been excoriated by other Republicans for his consistent collaboration with Democrats on highly politicized issues such as campaign finance, immigration and judicial nominees. What has led McCain to be so criticized by other Republicans - his genuine independence - is precisely what makes him so appealing to independents and preferable to Obama's facade of bipartisanship.

(...) If McCain ultimately selects former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney as his running mate, it could further improve his chances in Massachusetts. Romney was a competent and respected governor and his presence on the ticket would remind Massachusetts voters of everything they do not have in their current governor Deval Patrick, whose governorship to this point has been heavy on public relations gaffes and legislative failures and light on any real accomplishment. Even better for McCain, Patrick is a key Obama adviser and Obama's political and rhetorical doppelganger. Like Obama, Patrick was a liberal unknown who used lofty words - on occasion, the exact same words Obama uses today - and the promise of change to talk his way to electoral success.

Patrick's dismal gubernatorial performance likely was another factor in Obama's poor showing in this state, as Bay Staters were justifiably skeptical of a candidate who offered hope and change with little specifics or experience to support his promises. Obama's close connection to Patrick can also explain his disappointing showings in New Hampshire and Rhode Island. Both states are part of the Boston media market and thus very familiar with Patrick's struggles as governor. (...)