jueves, 24 de abril de 2008

The Next McGovern?















Hace tiempo decíamos que la organización electoral de Barack Obama se apoyaba en gran medida en los vestigios del fallido esfuerzo electoral que puso en marcha Howard Dean hace cuatro años, en la misma medida en que George McGovern operó en su día a través de las redes que cuatro años antes habían construído candidatos como Eugene McCarthy, desafiando la influencia de organizaciones tradicionales de la maquinaria del partido. Ahora John Judis, editor de la revista demócrata The New Republic, compara la deriva de Barack Obama entre sectores tradicionales del electorado demócrata -la clase trabajadora blanca- con lo visto en su día con George McGovern. The Next McGovern?

(...) Indeed, if you look at Obama's vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the '70s and '80s, led by college students and minorities. In Pennsylvania, Obama did best in college towns (60 to 40 percent in Penn State's Centre County) and in heavily black areas like Philadelphia.

Its ideology is very liberal. Whereas in the first primaries and caucuses, Obama benefited from being seen as middle-of-the-road or even conservative, he is now receiving his strongest support from voters who see themselves as "very liberal." In Pennsylvania, he defeated Clinton among "very liberal" voters by 55 to 45 percent, but lost "somewhat conservative" voters by 53 to 47 percent and moderates by 60 to 40 percent. In Wisconsin and Virginia, by contrast, he had done best against Clinton among voters who saw themselves as moderate or somewhat conservative.

Obama even seems to be acquiring the religious profile of the old McGovern coalition. In the early primaries and caucuses, Obama did very well among the observant. In Maryland, he defeated Clinton among those who attended religious services weekly by 61 to 31 percent. By contrast, in Pennsylvania, he lost to Clinton among these voters by 58 to 42 percent and did best among voters who never attend religious services, winning them by 56 to 44 percent. There is nothing wrong with winning over voters who are very liberal and who never attend religious services; but if they begin to become Obama's most fervent base of support, he will have trouble (to say the least) in November.

The primaries, unfortunately, are not going to get any easier for Obama. While he should win easily in North Carolina, where he benefits from a large African-American vote and support in the state's college communities, he is going to have trouble in Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, where he will once again be faced by a large white working class vote. He can still win the nomination and lose these primaries. Pennsylvania was the last big delegate prize. But if Obama doesn't find a way now to speak to these voters, he is going to have trouble winning that large swath of states from Pennsylvania through Missouri in which a Democrat must do well to gain the presidency. That remains Obama challenge in the month to come. (...)

7 comentarios:

Haters dijo...

Me gustaba más el blog cuado era algo más ecuánime. Ya hay un tufillo anti-Obama bastante intenso.

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

Yo no soy el que le hace perder entre esos segmentos del electorado. Sólo lo comento y pongo lo que que considero interesante.

El blog sería una basura si no me detuviera a cuestionar el rendimiento de un frontrunner que gasta 3 veces más dinero que su rival en un sólo estado y pierde ele stado por 10 puntos.

Nestor dijo...

Hola Antxon,

en mi reciente viaje a washington DC, compré el libro "The Complete Book of the Presidents of the USA" de William A. De Gregorio, editado por Gramercy. Me parece que tu lo recomendaste especialmente en una ocasión.

Jordi Coll dijo...

Sí lo recomendó. Yo lo busqué en las Borders de NYC pero no lo tenían.

Nestor dijo...

Pues yo lo encontré en la pequeña tienda que está dentro del Lincoln Memorial en Washington DC.

Haters dijo...

No lo digo sólo por este post, sino por los de las últimas semanas.

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

Sí, ese es un libro reciente. Es bueno para conocer tanto la vida como el mandato de diferentes Presidentes. Cuando uno lee ese tipo de libros, muchas veces descubre el interés por Presidentes en los que nunca se había fijado. Suele ocurrir con gente como Coolidge, Cleveland, etc.