sábado, 30 de junio de 2007

The Young Guns


En la imagen: Los Senadores David Vitter (R - Louisiana) y Jim Demint (R - Carolina dle Sur).

Leía ayer un interesante artículo del 'Washignton Times' sobre el rotundo fracaso del proyecto de reforma migratoria presentado ante el Senado. Como ya sabréis, la ley obtuvo 14 votos menos de los 60 necesarios para poder avanzar hacia una votación final. Y como sabréis también, el debate expuso la gran división existente dentro del caucus republicano sobre esta materia.

La votación de hace dos días significó la victoria de un grupo de jóvenes y novatos Senadores conservadores del GOP que, con la inestimable ayuda de las bases y una terrible campaña de presión a través de internet, humillaron a la vieja guardia del liderazgo de la cámara alta, tanto republicanos como demócratas, que contaba con el apoyo de la Casa Blanca y la Fox News.

El gran líder de esta "rebelión republicana" contra la propuesta de reforma migratoria ha sido el Senador Jim DeMint, de Carolina del Sur, acompañado por los Senadores David Vitter, de Louisiana, y Tom Coburn, de Oklahoma. Los tres elegidos por primera vez en 2004, coincidiendo con la triunfal reelección del Presidente Bush. A ellos se han unido también en ocasiones el Senador John Thune, de Dakota del Sur, el mejor comunicador del grupo, también del curso de 2004, y Jeff Sessions, de Alabama, este más veterano. La presión ha sido tan brutal que hasta el Líder de la Minoría republicana, Mitch McConnell, hasta ahora defensor de la ley, votó en contra en el último momento irritando a la Casa Blanca.

Se extiende el triunfalismo por la blogosfera conservadora por lo que observan como un triunfo de su poder de intervención. Durante semanas han sido constantes los llamamientos a los votanets de cada distrito para que bombardearan y presionaran telefónicamente y a través de correo a sus senadores de cara a la votación, al tiempo que los chicos de DeMint y compañía presionaban en el Capitolio. El resultado final de la operación ha convertido a esta media docena de jóvenes legisladores en auténticas estrellas entre los activistas republicanos. No os extrañe que alguno de ellos pueda entrar en consideración en 2008 para la candidatura republicana a la Vicepresidencia de los Estados Unidos. Junior GOP senators defeat old guard

(...) Instead, the young guns — a small, wily group of junior Republican senators, most of them with less than a full term in the upper chamber — sent the bill into a tailspin, tying Democratic leaders into legislative knots and earning enough opposition among senators to block the Senate bill, culminating in yesterday's vote to kill the measure. (...)

En el video: el Senador John Thune en el debate de esta semana sobre inmigración

Segunda fecha límite

Hoy se cierra el plazo para reportar el dinero recaudado en el segundo trimestre del año. Entre los republicanos todas las miradas están puestas en John McCain. Tras defraudar en el primer trimestre, en este segundo las expectativas no parecen ser mejores para el ya "ex favorito". Si no las supera, su campaña entrará en una franca depresión de la que le resultará demasiado difícil recuperarse.

Mitt Romney, por su parte, ayer trató de pasar la presión al campo de Giuliani, el supuesto front-runner, asegurando que en este segundo trimestre era el ex Alcalde quien estaba obligado a ser el mayor recaudador en el GOP. El equipo de Giuliani admite estas expectativas que existen sobre su candidato, pero se muestran prudentes y avisan de que la humildad de Romney al dar por hecho que Rudy ha recaudado más que él, puede ser una estrategia para buscar la sorpresa del público en caso de que esto no sea así. La típica treta del underdog. El ex Gobernador de Massachusetts también ha advertido que volverá a aportar dinero de su propio bolsillo que para eso le sobra...

En el lado demócrata la gran batalla seguirá siendo entre Hillary y Obama. Se espera que el Senador por Illinois supere nuevamente a la Senadora Clinton. El equipo de la ex Primera Dama comunicó hace un par de días que esperaban una recaudación que rondara los 27 millones de dólares. Esta actitud de adelantarse a revelar una cifra antes de tiempo, es interpretada como un síntoma del miedo a volver a ser superados por Obama.

La gran sorpresa en el lado demócrata promete ser el Gobernador Bill Richardson, que podría alcanzar los 7 millones de dólares, y pisarle los talones a un John Edwards que se insinúa no pasará de los 9 millones. En un último intento por mejorar sus cifras, Edwards pasó ayer el día en Texas, estado en el que cuenta con una potente maquinaria para animar a los contribuyentes.

También se espera que las malas cifras de varios de los candidatos menos conocidos, empujen a algunos de estos al abandono de la carrera y se aligere así el actual overbooking de aspirantes.

Counting the Campaign Cash

(...) It's that time again, the end of another quarter, and another moment of reckoning, as the presidential contenders prepare to report how much money they have raised and spent. Officially, the paperwork doesn't have to be filed with the Federal Election Commission until July 15 (the end of the second quarter is June 30). But the initial numbers are likely to trickle out over the weekend, especially from campaigns that have good news to share. (...)

viernes, 29 de junio de 2007

Tour electoral de Fred Thompson

El ex Senador Fred Thompson ha visitado en los últimos dos días Carolina del Sur y New Hampshire. Es su primera toma de contacto con los votantes republicanos de estos dos estados que tendrán un protagonismo singular en el proceso de primarias. En Carolina del Sur, donde las encuestas parecen serle muy favorables, está utilizando la etiqueta de "Son of the South" (hijo del Sur) para marcar las diferencias frente a sus rivales. Etiqueta tradicionalmente utilizada por muchos candidatos sureños, tanto republicanos como demócratas, para potenciar la imagen del popular outsider que vuelve loco a los votantes del estado rebelde que desencadenó la Guerra de Secesión.

Demócratas y "minority issues"

Anoche se celebró un nuevo debate entre los ocho candidatos demócratas. Esta vez no lo pude ver. Organizado por Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), se celebró en la Howar University, Carolina del Sur, y estuvo centrado en exclusiva en los temas que afectan a las minorías. Curiosamente el mismo día que el Tribunal Supremo emitió una sentencia histórica que rechaza la discriminación positiva en las escuelas. Algo que los demócratas interpretan como una "erosión de las garantías constitucionales básicas".

Por su pertenencia a la minoría negra, de gran presencia en el estado, parecía ser la de anoche una oportunidad única para que Barack Obama sobresaliera sobre el resto de los participantes. Pero, por lo que he podido leer en los primeros análisis, la cosa estuvo extremadamente igualada. Al tratarse temas sociales que sensibilizan particularmente a segmentos de la población que tienen gran impacto en el electorado demócrata, tales como la disparidad social, el SIDA o los níveles de delincuencia en comunidades minoritarias, el debate destacó por el acuerdo general y el desarrollo de muchos puntos comunes entre todos los candidatos. Lo cual dificultó que Obama encontrara el momento para sorbesalir. Algunos incluso llegan a afirmar que fue un nuevo triunfo para Hillary Clinton, quien sigue destacando en los debates por su estilo más claro.

Lo mejor es que veáis vosotros mismos el debate. He estado esperando a que C-Span colocase el video completo, pero como veo que se retrasan, en la web de PBS tenéis todo el debate dividido por temas. Travis Smiley fue el moderador.

Another Debate, Another Good Night for Hillary Clinton

(...) Thursday night's Democratic presidential debate at Howard University was a lovefest, not a slugfest. The candidates essentially agreed on the issues and frequently displayed a chumminess that suggested most of them would gladly join a ticket led by the eventual nominee. The good will was flowing so freely that, well into the discussion of racial justice, healthcare and education issues. New York Senator Hillary Clinton, D-New York, exclaimed, "It's hard to disagree with anything that has been said." (...)

jueves, 28 de junio de 2007

Edwards vs. Coulter

Todo empezó cuando Ann Coulter, la famosa columnista conservadora, comentó en televisión que deseaba que John Edwards fuese víctima de un acto terrorista. Esta afirmación, sacada de contexto si tenemos en cuenta en qué circunstancias lo dijo (en respuesta a unas palabras del comediante Bill Maher, quien dijo que si Dick Cheney hubiera sido asesinado por los terroristas, no hubiera muerto tanta gente en Iraq), provocó que al día siguiente la mujer del candidato Edwards llamase en directo al programa Hardball de MSNBC para criticar a Coulter.

El caso es que los Edwards están aprovechando muy bien este enfrentamiento con uno de los personajes más odiados entre las bases más activas del Partido Demócrata. Saben que meterse con Coulter puede ser un auténtico filón para rascar votos en unas primarias demócratas. Es el blanco perfecto. Un ogro para la América liberal. Un "hombre del saco" atractivo con mucha presencia en todos los medios de comunicación de masas. La campaña de Edwards ya ha comenzado a enviar e-mails y mensajes telefónicos utilizando los ataques de Coulter para pedir dinerito y contribuciones. Coulter's Words Help Edwards Raise Cash



Giuliani en la Regent University

Rudy Giuliani estuvo anteayer en la Regent University, la universidad cristiana fundada en su día por el pastor televisivo Pat Robertson. Allí tuvo ocasión de hablar ante una audiencia de 650 personas, entre ellas varios líderes de la comunidad evangélica, así como destacados personajes del mundo de la política y los negocios. En su discurso intentó finiquitar rápido las referencias a sus posiciones sociales y centrarse en aquellos puntos comunes que podía tener con la audiencia.

El ex Alcalde de Nueva York aprovechó la ocasión para ganarse al público llevándolos al terreno que mejor domina. La lucha contra el terrorismo y la Seguridad Nacional. Censuró las políticas antiterroristas aplicadas por la Administración Clinton en los años 90. Acusó al ex Presidente de haberle dado tratamiento de acto criminal corriente a los atentados de 1993 contra el World Trade Center, en lugar de enfrentarlos como actos de terrorismo internacional. "Los terroristas islámicos mataron a más de 500 ciudadanos americanos antes del 11 de septiembre de 2001. Mucha gente piensa que el primer ataque contra América fue ese día. No lo fue. Fue en 1993", fueron sus palabras.

El Christian Broadcast Network (CBN) analiza las posibilidades de Giuliani de llegar a los electores evangélicos más activos.

miércoles, 27 de junio de 2007

1984 Democratic Presidential Primary

Desde que Ronald Reagan llegó a la Casa Blanca en 1981, uno de sus mayores desafíos fue la reactivación económica y se dispuso a aplicar las fórmulas económicas preconizadas durante la campaña electoral para sacar al país de la recesión del periodo 1979-1980.

Para ello, no se detuvo a pensar en los costes sociales de la operación y cumplió rápidamente su promesa estrella de la bajada de impuestos que, mientras restaba fondos al Gobierno federal para programas sociales, inyectaba en el mercado una masa importante de dólares. Otras medidas fueron el mantenimiento de una estricta política monetaria, los altos tipos de interés bancario y la potenciación del dólar.

En una primera fase, el paro subió de forma alarmante del 7,3% de enero de 1981, hasta al 10,8% de diciembre de 1982. En zonas tradicionalmente industriales del país el desempleo duplicó la media nacional. Pero un año más tarde, con la inflación controlada y la actividad económica generando puestos de trabajo, el desempleo volvió a descender. La inflanción también descendió de forma espectacular, desde el 12,4% en 1980 al 3,8% a finales de 1983.

Con un promedio de crecimiento económico del 4,6%, muy superior al de sus aliados del mundo occidental, Reagan disponía en 1984 de un considerable margen de maniobra, a pesar de las fuertes críticas a su gestión, como para solicitar al electorado un nuevo mandato presidencial.

Hasta ocho demócratas presentaron su candidatura para tratar de impedir a Reagan ser reelegido en 1984. Fueron el ex Gobernador Reuben Askew, de Florida; el Senador Alan Cranston, de California; el Senador John Glenn, de Ohio; el Senador Gary Hart, de Colorado; el Senador Fritz Hollings, de Carolina del Sur; el reverendo afroamericano Jesse Jackson; el ex Senador George McGovern, de Dakota del Sur; y el ex Vicepresidente Walter Mondale.


En la imagen: Gary Hart, Jesse Jackson y Walter Mondale, 1984.

Fuente: Wikipedia

(...) Former vice-president Walter Mondale was the frontrunner in the race. Early on, Senator John Glenn polled well, coming in a strong second to Mondale. Glenn's character as astronaut was portrayed in an appealing manner. However, Glenn apparently turned his attention to national politics too early, neglecting the sensitive voters of the Iowa caucuses. Media attention turned to Mondale, Gary Hart, and Jesse Jackson, leaving Glenn the strongest also-ran.

In Februrary 1983, Senator Gary Hart announced his candidacy for president in the 1984 presidential election. At the time of his announcement, Hart was a little-known Senator and barely received above 1% in the polls against better-known candidates such as Walter Mondale, John Glenn, and Reverend Jesse Jackson. To counter this situation, Hart started campaigning early in New Hampshire, making a then-unprecedented canvassing tour in late September, months before the primary. This strategy attracted national media attention to his campaign, and by late 1983, he had risen moderately in the polls to the middle of the field, mostly at the expense of the sinking candidacies of John Glenn and Alan Cranston.

Mondale won the Iowa caucus in late January, but Hart polled a respectable 16%. In the Iowa caucuses, the results were as follows: Mondale 45%, Hart 15%, McGovern 13%, Cranston 9%, Uncommitted 7%, Glenn 5%, Askew 3%, Jackson 3%, Hollings 0%.

Two weeks later, in the New Hampshire primary, Senator Gary Hart shocked much of the party establishment and the media by defeating Mondale by ten percentage points. In the New Hampshire primary, the results were as follows: Hart 37.3%, Mondale 27.9%, Glenn 12.0%, Jackson 5.3%, McGovern 5.2%, Reagan 5.0% (write-in votes), Hollings 3.5%, Cranston 2.1%, Askew 1.0%.

En la imagen: Gary Hart y Walter Mondale en la portada de Time, 1984.

Mondale had spent considerable time stumping New hampshire (a full 51 days compared to Hart's 57 and Ohio Senator John Glenn's 37). In addition, Mondale had managed to put together a strong organizational effort, with organized labor as his cornerstone. But the candidate who most clearly followed the organizational and personal presence model was Senator Hart. His campaign supporters knocked on approximately 80,000 doors during their canvassing efforts in New Hampshire, which began in October 1983.

After his victory in New Hampshire, Hart instantly became the main challenger to Mondale for the nomination, and appeared to have the momentum on his side. The field of candidates then shrank tremendously. Ultimately, only three candidates survived long enough to win states: Mondale, Hart, and Jackson.

Gary Hart managed to mount a very successful campaign, but his "new ideas" were criticized as too vague and centrist by many Democrats. Shortly after he became the new front runner, it was revealed that Hart had changed his last name from Hartpence to Hart, had often listed 1937 instead of 1936 as his birth date, and had changed his signature several times. This, along with two separations from his wife, Lee, caused some to question Hart's "flake factor".

En la imagen: Gary Hart, 1984.

Mondale and Hart swapped victories in the primaries, with Hart getting exposure as a candidate with "new ideas" and Mondale rallying the party establishment to his side. The two men fought to a draw in the Super Tuesday primaries, with Hart winning states in the West, Florida, and New England. Mondale fought back and began ridiculing what he claimed to be the emptiness of Hart's ideas. In the most famous television moment of the campaign, he ridiculed Hart's "new ideas" by quoting a line from a popular Wendy's television commercial at the time: "Where's the beef?".

Mondale's remark was not effectively countered by Hart's campaign, and when Hart -- who was seen by many voters as a fresh, honest alternative to typical politicians -- ran stereotyped negative TV commercials against Mondale in the crucial Illinois primary, his campaign descended to the level of ordinary politics that Mondale represented, and Hart's appeal as a new kind of Democrat never quite entirely recovered.

En la imagen: Walter Mondale, 1984.

Once primaries in the delegate-rich states of New York and Pennsylvania arrived, Mondale's vast fund-raising superiority as the party-establishment candidate helped him overcome Hart's greater attractiveness as a fresher political face. Nevertheless Hart bounced back in states where there was a greater appetite for change, and he won primaries in Ohio and California. By the time the Democratic convention arrived, Mondale had a lead in total delegates that Hart was not quite able to overcome, and Mondale was nominated.

Jesse Jackson garnered 3.5 million votes during the primaries, third behind Hart and Mondale. He was the second African-American (after Shirley Chisholm) to mount a nationwide campaign for the Presidency. He managed to win Virginia, South Carolina, and Louisiana, and split Mississippi, where there were two separate contests for Democratic delegates. Through the process, Jackson helped confirm the black electorate's importance to the Democratic Party in the South at the time.

During the campaign, however, Jackson made an off-the-record reference to Jews as "Hymies" and New York City as "Hymietown", for which he later apologized. Nonetheless, the remark was widely publicized, and derailed his campaign for the nomination. Ending up, Jackson received 21% of the votes but only 8% of delegates.

These were the convention's nomination tally:

*Walter Mondale 2191
*Gary Hart 1200
*Jesse Jackson 485
*Thomas Eagleton 18
*George McGovern 4
*John Glenn 2
*Joseph Biden1
*Lane Kirkland 1

Mondale chose U.S. Rep. Geraldine Ferraro of New York as his running mate and she was confirmed by acclamation.

Aides later said that Mondale was determined to establish a precedent with his vice presidential candidate, considering San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein, also a female, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American, and San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros, a Hispanic, as other finalists for the nomination. Unsuccessful nomination candidate Jackson derided Mondale's vice-presidential screening process as a "p.r. parade of personalities."

Others however preferred Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D - Texas) because he would appeal to the Deep South. Nomination rival Gary Hart (D - Colorado) had also been lobbying for the vice-presidential spot on the ticket once it became apparent that Mondale had clinched the majority of delegates; Hart was expected to perform ten points better than Mondale in a hypothetical matchup with President Reagan. (...)

* Mapa de las primarias demócratas de 1984

* Video del discurso completo de Walter Mondale en la Convención Demócrata de 1984, en San Francisco (Real Player).

Ofensiva televisiva de Obama en Iowa

Barack Obama ha lanzado sus dos primeros anuncios por televisión en Iowa. Siguiendo la tradición, estos primeros comerciales de carácter biográfico, pretenden presentar al candidato ante los votantes, y comprobar así si gusta o no gusta. En los sondeos de las próximas semanas veremos el probable efecto de esta campaña de anuncios.

En uno de ellos, titulado "Choices", de un minuto se duración, se alaba al Senador por haber decidido dedicarse a las actividades comunitarias, rechazando suculentas ofertas para incorporarse a prestigiosas y caras firmas de abogados. También se recuerda que fue el primer presidente negro del Harvard Law Review cuando estudiaba en esa universidad.



En el otro, titulado "Carry", de 30 segundos, se repasa la labor de Obama en la Asamblea Estatal de Illinois como impulsor de nueva legislación ética o de la expansión del sistema de salud, destacando su inclinación por trabajar en busca del consenso bipartidista.

martes, 26 de junio de 2007

Rumores de retirada

Son muchos ya los que apuntan la posibilidad de una retirada de John McCain para principios del próximo otoño, en caso de no cumplir las expectativas en la recaudación de fondos de este segundo trimestre. Cada vez se hace más evidente su dificultad para recuperar la magia que tuvo hace ocho años. Para las bases más activas del partido se ha convertido en el enemigo público número uno, algo así como un clon de Ted Kennedy, debido a su contribución al proyecto migratorio del Senado, y entre los independientes ya no genera el entusiasmo de antaño.

Esto lleva a que el dinero no confíe en su candidatura. Se ha involucrado demasiado en las batallas políticas del Congreso, en la sucia política del día a día. Mientras los demás candidatos dedican todas sus horas a dibujar cuidadósamente aquellas imágenes que quieren mostrar a los electores, a McCain lo vemos en las televisiones enfrascado en debates parlamentarios defendiendo una legislación moribunda. McCain could pull out of race by autumn.

(...) THE former presidential front-runner, John McCain, may drop out of the 2008 race by September if his fundraising dries up and his poll ratings continue to drop, according to Republican insiders.

The speculation, vigorously denied by McCain’s camp, is sweeping Republican circles after a disastrous few weeks in which the principled Arizona senator has clashed with the party’s conservative base on immigration and also alienated independent voters by backing President George W Bush’s troop surge in Iraq.

Randy Pullen, chairman of the Arizona Republican party, said: “He’s a battler, so I’d expect him to carry on, but everyone is waiting to see what his new fundraising totals are. That’s pretty critical. If he doesn’t have the money, he won’t be able to run.”
(...)

lunes, 25 de junio de 2007

Las dos Américas de Edwards

El ex Senador John Edwards ha retomado este fin de semana en Reno, Nevada, el discurso de "las dos Américas" que ya utilizó como tema central de su campaña presidencial en 2004. Es un discurso que agrada. Con referencias al sueño americano que merece ser probado por todos, el derecho a tener éxito a través del esfuerzo y los méritos propios, en definitiva, el reclamo de oportunidades para todos. El populismo gusta.

Romney en Iowa y New Hampshire

Un artículo de Dan Balz en el Washingtin Post sobre el éxito de Mitt Romney en Iowa y New Hampshire, y su capacidad para maximizar el beneficio de pequeñas ventajas. Romney Gains Credibility In Early Primary States.

(...) When former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney began airing television ads in a handful of states last winter, his opponents paid little notice. Early advertising in presidential campaigns -- particularly commercials broadcast almost 11 months before the first contests -- seemed a classic waste of resources.

Four months and more than $4 million later, Romney's ads are still running, and the GOP presidential candidate is reaping the dividends. Although he remains well behind former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona in most national polls, his standing in the states that will kick off the nominating process has risen dramatically.
(...)

Las ex novias de Fred

Fred Thompson está recibiendo estos días unos apoyos muy especiales en su carrera hacia la Casa Blanca. Parece que a sus ex novias y ex amantes sólo les falta organizar un club de fans para apoyar las aspiraciones del actor-senador. Desde una cantante country, hasta una recaudadora de fondos del Partido Republicano, pasando por una periodista de la televisión... todas ellas fueron novias y ahora son seguidoras. Parece que por el momento se va a librar de tener que sufrir a alguna mujer despechada contando en la tele sus intimidades sexuales. Old girlfriends cast their vote for Thompson.

(...) IN the battle for the women’s vote, Fred Thompson has a secret weapon against Hillary Clinton - the legions of former girlfriends who still adore him and who want him to be president.

The Hollywood actor and former Tennessee senator racked up an impressive list of conquests during his swinging bachelor days in the 1990s, but he appears to have achieved the impossible and kept their friendship and respect.
(...)

sábado, 23 de junio de 2007

viernes, 22 de junio de 2007

1992 Democratic Presidential Primary

Las primarias demócratas de 1992 nos sirven de ejemplo sobre cómo puede evolucionar un proceso electoral tan largo por caminos imprevisibles. Al dar comienzo la carrera, los analistas lo veían como una competición por elegir al candidato al que le tocaría sufrir una humillante derrota ante el Presidente republicano George Bush, aún disfrutando de las mieles del éxito en los desiertos de Kuwait.

Después del inesperado fracaso que supuso para los demócratas la elección de 1988, pocos pesos pesados dentro del partido se decidieron a prestarse a una nueva humillación en 1992, cuando todas las circunstancias parecían alinearse en favor del Presidente en funciones. Esto provocó el salto al ruedo de figuras menos importantes que no tenían nada que perder.

Se presentaron hasta 10 precandidatos demócratas: el Alcalde Larry Agran, de Irvine, una ciudad de California; el ex Gobernador Jerry Brown, de California; el Gobernador Bill Clinton, de Arkansas; el Senador Tom Harkin, de Iowa; el Senador Bob Kerrey, de Nebraska; el actor y director de cine Tom Laughlin; el ex Senador Eugene McCarthy, de Minnesota; el ex Senador Paul Tsongas, de Massachusetts; el Gobernador Douglas Wilder, de Virginia; y Charles Woods, un hombre de negocios de Alabama.



Fuentes: Wikipedia, CNN y Union Leader.

(...) There was some media speculation in 1987 that Clinton would enter the race for the 1988 Democratic presidential nomination after then-New York Governor Mario Cuomo declined to run and Democratic front-runner Gary Hart bowed out due to revelations about marital infidelity. Often referred to as the "Boy Governor" at the time because of his youthful appearance, Clinton decided to remain as Arkansas Governor and postpone his presidential ambitions until 1992. Presenting himself as a moderate and a member of the New Democrat wing of the Democratic Party, he headed the moderate Democratic Leadership Council in 1990 and 1991.

In 1991, President Bush had high popularity ratings in the wake of the Gulf War. Many well-known Democrats, including House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri, Governor Mario Cuomo of New York or Senators Al Gore of Tennessee and Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia considered the race unwinnable and did not run for the nomination. Those that did run included several less-well-known candidates.

Governor Clinton began his 1992 presidential quest on a sour note by finishing near the back of the pack in the Iowa caucus, which was largely uncontested due to the presence of favorite-son Senator Tom Harkin, who was the easy winner. Clinton’s real trouble began during New Hampshire Primary campaign, when revelations of a possible extramarital affair with Gennifer Flowers began to surface. Clinton and his wife Hillary decided to go on 60 Minutes following the Super Bowl to rebut those charges of infidelity.

The "Gennifer Flowers" story gave birth to a serious campaign problem called the "character issue," which caused Clinton to plummet in the polls. At one point, he trailed senator Paul Tsongas by 20 points in New Hampshire. But Clinton barnstormed New Hampshire in the last weeks before the February 18 primary, and ended up in second place behind Tsongas, 33 percent to 25 percent. On Primary night, Clinton's camp convinced many in the national news media that his 24.7 percent showing that day was a moral victory and a major comeback. Clinton was upbeat, calling himself "The Comeback Kid".

En la imagen: Paul Tsongas celebra su victoria en New Hampshire, 18 de febrero, 1992.

After finishing second to Paul Tsongas in the New Hampshire primary February 18, Clinton headed to his native South to begin his comeback. He scored his first primary win in Georgia on March 3, and picked up South Carolina on March 7. Bob Kerrey dropped out of the race on March 5, Tom Harkin on March 9. Clinton then swept five southern states on "Super Tuesday," March 10. His biggest wins were in Florida, where he attacked Tsongas for not ruling out limits on Social Security, and Texas .

With Senators Harkin and Kerrey out of the race, the campaign became a contest between Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown, and Bill Clinton. Clinton used his new-found momentum to storm through the Southern primaries and build up a sizable delegate lead over his opponents in the race. This forced Paul Tsongas out of the race on March 19. Jerry Brown, however, began to run a surprising insurgent campaign, particularly through use of a 1-800 number to receive grassroots funding. There were still some doubts as to whether Clinton could secure the nomination, as former California Governor Jerry Brown was scoring victories in other parts of the country and Clinton had yet to win a significant contest outside of his native South. Brown scored surprising wins in Connecticut and Colorado and seemed poise to overtake Clinton .

En la imagen: Jerry Brown haciendo campaña, 1992.

With no major Southern state remaining on the primary calendar, the showdown between Brown and Clinton came in delegate-rich New York, which held its primary April 7. The campaign was brutal. Clinton attacked Brown's proposed 13 percent flat tax as "the biggest rip-off in American politics" because, he said, it would increase taxes on the working poor and the middle class. Brown claimed Clinton was "unelectable" because of all the negative stories about his past.

Indeed, negative stories continued to surface. Black leaders had criticized Clinton for playing golf at a Little Rock country club that has no black members. Also during the New York campaign, Clinton revealed that he tried marijuana when he was a college student, but "never inhaled," a comment that drew widespread ridicule. Brown and Clinton faced off in a series of debates, including appearances (separately and together) on the Phil Donahue show. Even though polls showed Clinton ahead in New York, his advisors told Clinton the debates were necessary to go directly to the voters and around the tabloids.

On April 7, Clinton won New York primary with 40.5 percent of the vote. Clinton also won primaries in two other states (Kansas and Wisconsin) and a beauty contest in Minnesota the same day. After April 7, people began to acknowledge Clinton would be the party's nominee. The next major contest was Pennsylvania on April 28. Clinton defeated Brown 56.6 percent to 25.6 percent. The May primaries drew little interest. Clinton piled up win after win.

En la imagen: Bill Clinton, 1992.

Clinton finally clinched enough delegates to win the nomination on Tuesday, June 2. California was the largest prize on that day, and Clinton worked hard to avoid being embarrassed by a loss to Brown the same day he sewed up the nomination. Polls during the long primary season showed Brown could win in California, since it was his home state. Clinton was forced to spend the entire weekend before the primary in California, bypassing such major states as New Jersey and Ohio, which also held primaries June 2. It paid off: he won all the June 2 Democratic primaries.

The wait for the Democratic convention found Clinton lingering in third place in the national polls, behind of Bush and Perot, although he no longer was losing ground. He tried to broaden his base, reaching out to organized labor, which supported Tom Harkin's campaign, as well as black and Jewish voters.

On June 21, 1992, Clinton released a detailed economic plan called "Putting People First." Clinton's plan came out at the beginning of a week of angry fighting between the Bush and Perot campaigns, which gave Clinton a chance to talk about "issues" and appear above the Bush-Perot fray. The week before the Democratic Convention found Clinton moving up in the polls.

Many democratic politicians were mentioned as Clinton's possible running-mate,i.e. Senator Bob Kerrey (D - Nebraska), Representative Dick Gephardt (D - Missouri), Governor Mario Cuomo (D - New York), Representative Lee Hamilton (D - Indiana), Senator Harris Wofford (D - Pennsylvania), or Senator Bob Graham (D - Florida).

Clinton chose young U.S. Senator Al Gore Jr. (D-Tennessee) to be his running mate. Choosing Gore, who is from Clinton's neighboring state of Tennessee, went against the popular strategy of balancing a Southern candidate with a Northern partner. Gore did serve to balance the ticket in other ways, as he was perceived as strong on family values and environmental issues, while Clinton was not. Also, Gore's similarities to Clinton allowed him to really push some of his key campaign themes, such as centrism and generational change.

The Convention week was a resounding success for the Democrats. The Convention was essentially a solidification of the party around Clinton and Gore, though there was controversy over whether Jerry Brown would be allowed to speak. Brown did indeed speak and ultimately endorsed the Clinton campaign. The last day of the Convention (July 16), a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Clinton had overtaken President Bush, 56 percent to 33 percent. (...)

Video del discurso completo de Bill Clinton en la Convención Demócrata de 1992 (Real Player).

En la imagen: Bill Clinton y Al Gore en la Convención Demócrata de 1992, en Nueva York.

jueves, 21 de junio de 2007

Decidiendo en familia

La familia Romney las pasadas Navidades. Ayudan a Mitt a tomar la decisión de presentarse a la Presidencia de los Estados Unidos.

Obama vence en el "Straw Poll" del TBA

Ayer el Senador Barack Obama se anotó un tanto importante en la conferencia de Take Back America (TBA), celebrada en Washington DC. The Politico aprovechó el evento para organizar un "straw poll" (sondeo de paja) entre los asistentes para saber cual era su precandidato preferido. La victoria fue para Obama.

La importancia de este resultado no es moco de pavo. 'Take Back America' es una organización fundada tras la elección de George W. Bush en 2000, por una serie de activistas progresistas que dicen luchar contra la América corporativa, el fundamentalismo religioso, o el intervencionismo militar. Un claro exponente de lo que se llama un "politically active left-wing organization", con mucha presencia en el desarrollo de las actividades de base del Partido Demócrata.

El triunfo de Obama debemos interpretarlo, sobre todo, como una muestra de desconfianza de los activistas anti-guerra hacia lo que representa Hillary Clinton. Los más monotemáticos no terminan de fiarse de ella. Seguramente porque no vende un discurso "pacifista" en los términos en que esta gente entiende el "pacifismo".

Los asistentes a la conferencia también fueron cuestionados sobre otros asuntos. Por ejemplo, se les pididó que identificaran los 2 temas que más les preocupan. En los resultados sorprende la poca preocupación que demuestran sobre asuntos de terrorismo y Seguridad Nacional. Algo en lo que no coinciden con el grueso del electorado. Tampoco al dar mayor importancia al calentamiento global que al empleo. Unos datos que pueden indicarnos hasta qué punto pueden estar fuera de la realidad los agentes sociales políticamente más activos, respecto al ciudadano medio. Y lo trágico que puede llegar a ser que los candidatos estén sometidos a la voluntad de estos grupos para poder imponerse en las internas.

El resultado del sondeo de preocupaciones:

Iraq 50%

Sanidad 37%

Calentamiento global 30%

Economía y empleo 23%

Educación 15%

Corrupción en Washington 11%

Terrorismo y Seguridad Nacional 7%

Deficit federal 5%

Inmigración ilegal 5%

Impuestos 4%

Seguridad Social 3%

Encuestas para Florida

Nueva encuesta de Strategic Vision para las primarias de Florida. Entre los demócratas, Hillary Clinton despunta sin problemas con el 37% de la intención del voto frente al 21% de Barack Obama, quien apenas logra despegarse de un John Edwards que se queda en el 20%. Mirando los sondeos de los últimos días, Hillary consolida su posición en New Hampshire, Nevada y Florida, empata con Edwards en Iowa, y pierde frente a Obama en Carolina del Sur. El cómputo global en los cinco primeros estados que decidirán, es claramente favorable a la mujer de Bill.

Entre los republicanos, Strategic Vision coloca a Rudy Giuliani en cabeza para la primaria de la Florida. Parece que Florida es el estado que más satisfacciones puede dar al ex Alcalde de Nueva York en las primeras semanas de primarias. Su ventaja no es tan cómoda como la de Hillary en el lado demócrata, pero ya lleva varios meses aguantando en cabeza. Lograría el 30% del voto, frente al 24% de Fred Thompson. El resto tienen mucho trabajo que hacer en el estado soleado si quieren asomarse a la cabeza.

Giuliani está depositando en una victoria en Florida mucha de su confianza para obtener la candidatura, pero no debería olvidar que, una vez comience el proceso de nominación en Iowa, es imposible aislar cada primaria de la dinámica del proceso general. Es decir, si los números de Rudy son decepcionantes en los estados que voten antes de Florida, los electores de este último estado empezarán a verlo como un perdedor y serán otros los que lleguen con el viento a favor.

Como djo John Sears, campaign manager de Reagan en la campaña de 1976, "la semana antes de la primaria de New Hampshire estábamos en cabeza en las encuestas para Florida. El sábado siguiente de perder la primaria de New Hampshire, las mismas encuestas nos situaban 18 puntos abajo en Florida". Hay que competir primero en Iowa, New Hampshire y Carolina del Sur para llegar vivo a Florida.

Sweet Home GoreObama

McCain en caída libre

La última encuesta de Mason-Dixon para el Caucus de Iowa, sitúa la intención de voto para el Senador John McCain en el quinto puesto empatado con Sam Brownback. Pésimos números en el estado que abrirá la competición el próximo mes de enero. La entrada de Fred Thompson, y la renuncia a participar en el "straw poll" de este verano, pueden ser las causas más directas de este repentino desplome que coincide también con los deprimentes números que recibe en Carolina del Sur.

Por si esto fuera poco, el mismo día que los chicos de McCain recibieron estas frustrantes noticias, informaciones de la campaña de Mitt Romney profundizaron su depresión. Team Romney anunció ayer en Phoenix que el ex Gobernador de Massachusetts ha recaudado un millón de dólares sólo en Arizona, más de lo esperado en el hogar de John McCain. Romney Tops $1 Million in Arizona

(...) Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has topped $1 million in contributions in Arizona, the home state of presidential rival John McCain, Romney campaign officials said Wednesday. (...)

miércoles, 20 de junio de 2007

1976 GOP Presidential Primary

Richard Nixon, una vez reelegido en 1972, había planificado su sucesión para el 76 en la persona de su Secretario del Tesoro, y antiguo Gobernador de Texas, John Connally, un popular ex demócrata reconvertido en republicano, que a los ojos de Nixon era un perfecto reflejo de la degradación del Partido Demócrata y el avance del GOP entre la clase media y en los estados del Sur. Pero los sueños de Nixon se rompieron en el momento mismo en que su Presidencia cayó en desgracia. El Watergate trastocó todos los planes.

La dimisión de Nixon había dejado la Presidencia en manos de un hombre que nunca mostró grandes ambiciones, Gerald Ford. Antiguo Líder de la Minoría en la Cámara de Representantes, Ford nunca había competido en unas elecciones fuera del 5º Distrito de Michigan al que representó en el Congreso durante décadas.

Un año antes de la elección del 76, aún muchos expertos creían que Ford no se desviaría de los asuntos de la gestión diaria de la nación para involucrarse en una incierta aventura electoral. Aparentemente no tenía apoyos suficientes dentro del partido y la carrera del 76 no parecía una experiencia agradable para un republicano, tras el desprestigio al que se vio sometido el partido en 1974.

Pero la economía pareció mejorar levemente y esto decidió al Presidente Ford. Se acabaron sus vacilaciones y anunció su intención de aspirar a un nuevo mandato. Pero el camino no sería tan sencillo como pudiera suponerse, tratándose de un Presidente en funciones.

Muchos republicanos, especialmente aquellos no asociados a la "sociedad política de Washington", no estaban dispuestos a dejar pasar la oportunidad que planteaba el escenario de un partido en horas bajas, para plantear su propia alternativa. Encontraron a su hombre en la figura de Ronald Reagan. Un ex actor que contaba con la experiencia de dos exitosos mandatos como Gobernador del estado más populoso de la Unión, y con el atractivo de encarnar el espíritu libre propio del hombre del Oeste.



Fuentes: Wikipedia, Union Leader y Reagan's Revolution

(...) Incumbent President Ford, appointed to the vice-presidency after the resignation of Spiro Agnew and then elevated to the presidency by the resignation of Richard Nixon, was the only U.S. president never to have been elected president or vice president. His policy goals were frustrated by Congress, heavily Democratic after the 1974 mid-term election and infuriated by his decision to pardon Nixon for any criminal acts he committed or may have committed as part of the Watergate scandal.

Reagan and the conservative wing of the Republican Party faulted Ford for failing to do more to assist South Vietnam (which finally collapsed in April 1975 with the fall of Saigon) and for his signing of the Helsinki Accords, which they took as implicit acceptance of Soviet domination over Eastern Europe. Conservatives were also infuriated by Ford's negotiations with Panama to hand over the Panama Canal.

Reagan began to openly criticize Ford starting in the summer of 1975, and formally launched his campaign in the autumn. Reagan soon established himself as the conservative candidate; like-minded organizations such as the American Conservative Union became the key components of his political base. He relied on a strategy crafted by campaign manager John Sears of winning a few primaries early to seriously damage the liftoff of Ford's campaign, but the strategy quickly disintegrated.

In New Hampshire, Reagan received the endorsements of second-term Governor Meldrim Thomson as well as the editorial blessing of the Union Leader. With a mediagenic presence and polished speaking talent, Reagan drew sizable crowds as he traveled through the 10 counties of New Hampshire for 19 days of stumping that winter, and his appearances drew considerable media attention.

During the final weekend before the February 24 New Hampshire primary in an extremely close Ford-Reagan race, the former President Richard Nixon left on another journey to China. Some Ford advisors believed the timing of the trip was a deliberate ploy to damage his successor and set in motion a nomination deadlock that would lead to the eventual selection of Nixon favorite John Connally, who although then a Democrat had served as Nixon's treasury secretary from 1970 to 1972.


En la imagen: Gerald y Betty Ford llegan al aeropuerto de Manchester, New Hampshire, en 1976.

After two trips to the state, President Ford won a narrow victory in New Hampshire — 55,156 to 53,569 - the closest vote in the history of the primary and a remarkable indicator of just how close the national race between these two men would be. His organizational drive led by California political consultant Stuart Spencer received much credit for the President's victory.

Much of the blame for the narrow Reagan defeat was laid at the door of his proposal to cut $90 billion from the federal budget to reduce taxes, decrease the federal deficit, and also to make a down payment on the national debt. This proposal, along with a suggestion to consider a plan to invest Social Security funds in the stock market, kept Reagan on the defensive throughout the primary. Former governor Walter Peterson, a Ford delegate, said of the $90 billion plan that it "was attacked at just the right time. Doubt was cost on that proposal. There was also doubt as to whether he (Reagan) was really the sensible kind of person the country ought to have."

Reagan's failure to exploit public disapproval of the Panama Canal treaties (something he attacked with great frequency in later primaries), was considered another reason for the narrow loss. One Ford staffer, when asked if their campaign was wary of the Panama Canal issue, acknowledged it had shown up in the polling data as a problem for Ford. "We were scared to death of the issue in New Hampshire. The Reagan people blew it by not exploiting it."

Ford's narrow victory in New Hampshire had ramifications well beyond the tiny number of votes tabulated and delegates allotted. Ford won 18 of the 21 delegates. Later that year, John Sears, Reagan's national campaign manager, told a Harvard University Institute of Politics seminar: "The week before the New Hampshire primary, our polling showed us ahead in Florida. Then on the Saturday after the New Hampshire primary, the poll showed us 18 points down, which gives you some idea of what momentum, or lack of it, can do."

Poor management of expectations and an ill-timed speech promising to shift responsibility for federal services to the states without identifying any clear funding mechanism caused Reagan to lose later in Florida and Illinois primaries. Reagan found himself cornered, desperately needing a win to stay in the race.

En la imagen: Ronald Reagan con su asesor Mike Deaver, 1976.

By the time the North Carolina primary arrived, the Ford camp was cocky and confident and Reagan was reeling. The exception was two Reaganites, Republican Senator Jesse Helms and his sidekick Tom Ellis, who hadn’t given up. To say Ford, having won the New Hampshire, Florida, and Illinois primaries, was shocked by North Carolina is putting it mildly. Neither he nor the press had any idea that Helms and Ellis might engineer a huge Reagan upset, a victory that kept him in the race.

Then came Texas. Ford had meticulously organized what few Republicans there were in the state. His chief Texas strategist, Jim Francis, said that despite Reagan’s popularity with conservatives, Ford was poised to win the primary with a record turnout. On primary day, Francis knew Ford was in trouble when he arrived at his local precinct voting place and encountered a line filled with people he’d never laid eyes on. They weren’t regular Republicans, that’s for sure, but Reagan had attracted them. Ford actually got his record vote. But the turnout for Reagan swamped it. The Texas primary was the same day as the White House Correspondents’ dinner in Washington, attended by Ford and all the bigwigs in his administration and campaign. They were a glum lot at the dinner.

The lesson from Texas was never under estimate Ronald Reagan. Texas was also significant for another reason. Reagan reached top form in campaigning in the weeks before the primary. Any candidate in America arouse crowds the way Reagan did. His riff about keeping the Panama Canal prompted his audiences to go practically beserk. Weeks earlier, Reagan drop his note cards on the floor at a luncheon speech in Joliet, Illinois, then fail to get them back in the right order. His speech that day was dreary and incoherent. He looked like a loser. But in Texas, a different Reagan had stepped front and center, the Reagan we came to know as president and world leader.

He ran off a string of primary victories - Indiana, Georgia, Alabama - that left him close to Ford in delegates at the convention in Kansas City. Although Ford had won more primary delegates than Reagan, he did not have enough to secure the nomination, and both candidates arrived at the convention early to campaign for additional support. Here Reagan benefitted from his highly committed delegates, notably "Reagan's Raiders" of the Texas delegation. They and other conservative Western and Southern delegates particularly faulted the Ford Administration's foreign policy. But once the Mississippi delegation, led by conservative Clarke Reed, sided with Ford, it was clear Reagan couldn’t win the nomination.

En la imagen: un delegado de Reagan lanza un mensaje a Rocky (Nelson Rockefeller) en la Convención Republicana, Kansas City, 1976.

The conservatives succeeded in inserting several key planks into the party platform. Reagan and North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms successfully had a "moral foreign policy" plank inserted. In light of the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, the 1976 Republican platform became the first to advocate a Human Life Amendment to the Constitution. They next sought a rules change which would have required candidates to identify their running mate before the start of balloting.

Reagan withdrew from the race at the end of the Republican Convention in Kansas City, but was permitted to address the delegates—virtually overshadowing Ford's own speech—and convinced Ford to drop Vice President Nelson Rockefeller, who was seen as too liberal, in favor of Senator Bob Dole of Kansas.

Convention tally:

*President Ford 1187
*Ronald Reagan 1070
*Elliot L. Richardson 1 (...)

* Video de entrevista al ex Senador Paul Laxalt, aliado de Reagan, sobre la Convención Republicana de 1976 (Real Player).

Artículos interesantes de la época:

* How Ford Won It (Time Magazine)

* The Dole Decision (Time Magazine)

En la imagen: Ford y Reagan se saludan en la Convención Republicana, Kansas City, 1976.

Work Like Crazy

Sexto anuncio televisivo de Mitt Romney. Fiel al mismo estilo que le ha dado buenos resultados en los estados clave, este se centra en celebrar el conservadurismo fiscal del candidato en 30 segundos. Recortar impuestos y gastos.

El comercial saldrá al aire en Iowa y New Hampshire, a la vez que se mantiene en antena "Tested, Proven", el anterior. El Gobernador Romney se confirma así como el más agresivo de los candidatos en la utilización de la televisión. Ha invertido ya 4 millones de dólares sólo en campaña mediática. Una inversión que se revela muy productiva al colocar al candidato en cabeza en intención de voto, en esos dos estados.

Bloomberg alienta los rumores

El actual Alcalde de Nueva York, Michael Bloomberg, ha hecho oficial su salida del Partido Republicano para registrarse como independiente. No es ninguna sorpresa, ya que, como él mismo manifiesta, sus opiniones en la mayoría de los asuntos son antagónicas a las de sus compañeros de partido. Desde la inmigración a las celulas madre, pasando por el espinoso tema del aborto.

Este movimeinto coincide en el tiempo con los crecientes rumores que hablan de una posible candidatura presidencial independiente encabezada por Bloomberg para 2008. Aunque el señalado lo niega. Ya hablamos de esa hipotética alternativa independiente en mayo.

Mi opinión es que los líderes demócratas deberían ser los primeros interesados en abortar cualquier intento de Bloomberg en esa dirección. El impacto de su candidatura sería mucho mayor en estados con tendencia demócrata, tales como la propia Nueva York, Nueva Jersey o Pensylvannia, dividiendo el voto en lugares en los que esa división más favorecería al GOP. En cambio, tengo serias dudas de que pudiera tener algún tipo de impacto en estados como Missouri, Arkansas o Tennessee, más allá de robarle un puñado de votos al candidato demócrata.

Celine Dion cantará para Hillary

Team Hillary ya ha revelado cual será el tema (musical) central que acompañará la campaña de la Senadora. "You and I" de Celine Dion. Es el resultado del concurso que convocaron en internet para que los internautas fuesen quienes eligieran la canción... a riesgo de que eligieran una poco a propiada, como en mi opinión ha ocurrido. La canción elegida se ha impuesto a otras como "You are still the one" de Shania Twain, "Don't look back" de The Temptations, "Suddenly I see" de KT Tunstall, o "I'm a believer" de Smash Mouth.

Para descubrir cual sería su himno de campaña, los chicos de Hillary han realizado un original video que recrea las escenas finales del último capítulo de la serie "Los Soprano" que se emitió reciéntemente en Estados Unidos. La candidata espera en un restaurante a que lleguen su marido y su hija, mientras trata de decidir qué canción poner en el jukebox. Tanto pensárselo para terminar poniendo una de Celine Dion. Ver para creer.

Echemos un vistazo a los precedentes. Algunas canciones utilizadas por campañas ganadoras en el pasado han sido "Only in America" de Brooks & Dunn, utilizada por Bush en 2004; "Don't Stop" de Fleetwood Mac, utilizada por Clinton en 1992; "This Land Is Your Land" de Woody Guthrie o "La Bamba" de Los Lobos, utilizadas por Bush en 1988; o "Born in the USA" de Bruce Springsteen, utilizada por Reagan en 1984. Veremos si esta de Celine Dion tiene gancho, o pasa sin pena ni gloria.

martes, 19 de junio de 2007

McCain en problemas

La campaña del Senador McCain vive sus horas más bajas. Algunas encuestas nacionales lo relegan a la tercera posición, a la vez que observa impotente el desplome de sus expectativas en estados como Carolina del Sur, donde su compromiso con el impopular proyecto migratorio del Senado parece estar pesando más que el apoyo de figuras locales como Henry McMaster o Bobby Harrell.

A todo ello hay que sumarle las dificultades para recaudar dinero y la manifiesta desconfianza de los grandes donantes. El New York Times nos habla de ello en un artículo de dos páginas.

(...) A ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee like Senator John McCain could normally bank on a bonanza of campaign contributions from the defense industry, especially if he was under pressure to raise money fast.

But as Mr. McCain races to play catch-up with his Republican presidential primary rivals before the end of the second quarter, he is only reminding military companies and lobbyists why they have never liked him. “Defense contractors are more concerned with winning the next contract than performing on the current one,” he charged at a recent campaign stop. (...)

La bendición de Maggie

Fred Thompson voló ayer a Londres. Allí está previsto que hoy emita un discurso sobre política exterior ante el Policy Exchange, un conocido think tank conservador. El título de su exposición será "Strengthening the Transatlantic Alliance". Pero no parece ser eso lo que más interesa del viaje a sus asesores. El objetivo prioritario es ser fotografiado mañana en compañía de la codiciada Margaret Thatcher. No es el primer precandidato republicano que en los últimos meses busca que lo retraten a los pies de la Baronesa.

Ron Paul y los amos del universo

El canal de Youtube del Congresista Ron Paul es el que más suscripciones tiene. No sólo entre los republicanos. También supera a Hillary Clinton y Barack Obama. Aparte de eso, tiene seguidores y fanáticos con canal propio que también cuelgan videos amateurs que promocionan al candidato.

Aquí tenemos uno. Ron Paul y los amos del universo. Príncipe de Eternia y defensor de los secretos del castillo Grayskull. El universo ya está protegido por el poder del..... ¿Os suena?

lunes, 18 de junio de 2007

1976 Democratic Presidential Primary


En las primarias demócratas de 1976 tenemos el más espectacular ascenso político que ha conocido la historia moderna americana. En diciembre de 1974, poco antes de abandonar su cargo de Gobernador de Georgia, el desconocido James Earl Carter, que quería que lo llamaran Jimmy, anunciaba su candidatura a la Presidencia para las elecciones del 76.

El anuncio apenas tuvo eco en la prensa. Hacía pocos meses que Nixon había dimitido y había tal tormenta política a nivel nacional que ni la clase política de Washington, ni los grandes medios de comunicación tuvieron tiempo para prestar atención a este granjero sureño de 50 años, con experiencia de sólo 4 años como Gobernador.

Todavía en aquella época, desde la Guerra Civil, los Gobernadores de estados del Sur Profundo no entraban en consideración de nadie como serios aspirantes a la Casa Blanca. Parecían pertenecer a otro mundo. Nadie los tomaba con posibilidades de aspirar a un cargo nacional. Pero Carter comenzó pronto a viajar por todo el país y puso en marcha un tipo de campaña que parecía amateur a los ojos de muchos, basado en el reclutamiento de voluntarios y personal no profesionalizado.

La estrategia se demostró eficaz, ya que mientras los demás precandidatos demócratas, pesos pesados, pensando que la clave seguía estando en destacarse en los círculos políticos de Washington para lograr apoyos poderosos, no cayeron en la cuenta de que las reformas de las leyes electorales de finales de los 60 y principios de los 70 habían dejado caduca la manera anticuada de hacer campaña.

También olvidaron otro factor fundamental. El escándalo Watergate todavía estaba reciente en la memoria de los electores, por lo que el hecho de no pertenecer a la clase política de Washington suponía una ventaja real para Carter. Cuando empezó a subir como la espuma, las élites del partido no fueron capaces de construir una alternativa sólida a su candidatura, ya que el voto progresista clásico quedó dividido entre diferentes candidatos en las primarias. La opción de Carter parecía la única original y diferenciada del resto. Los demás, la mayoría "old-fashioned democrats", se parecían demasiado entre ellos.

Aquel año hubo overbooking de precandidatos demócratas. Al no existir un favorito claro, y con los republicanos en horas bajas, muchos fueron los demócratas que se apuntaron a la carrera por la Casa Blanca. Los más destacados: el Senador Birch Bayh, de Indiana; el Gobernador Jerry Brown, de California; el Senador Robert Byrd, de Virginia Occidental; el ex Gobernador Jimmy Carter, de Georgia; el Senador Frank Church, de Idaho; el ex Senador Fred Harris de Oklahoma; el Senador Henry Jackson, de Washington; el diplomático Sargent Shriver; el Senador Adlai Stevenson III, de Illinois; el Congresista Morris Udall, de Arizona; y el Gobernador George Wallace, de Alabama.

Fuentes: Wikipedia, PBS y Union Leader


(...) The 1976 campaign featured a record number of state primaries and caucuses, and it was the first presidential campaign in which the primary system was dominant. However, most of the Democratic candidates failed to realize the importance of the increased number of primaries, or the importance of creating momentum by winning the early contests. The one candidate who did see the opportunities in the new nominating system was Jimmy Carter, a former governor of Georgia.

Carter, who was virtually unknown at the national level, would never have gotten the Democratic nomination under the old, boss-dominated nominating system, but given the public disgust with political corruption following Nixon's resignation, Carter realized that his obscurity and "fresh face" could be an asset in the primaries. Carter's plan was to run in all of the primaries and caucuses, beginning with the Iowa caucus, and build up momentum by winning "somewhere" each time primary elections were held.

Traveling around the country long before other candidates began their campaigns, Carter listened, assessed the national mood, and decided it was the perfect time for an outsider like himself to run. While running essentially as a moderate to conservative Democrat, Carter emphasized his message of honesty, integrity, and character over specific issues. "I will not lie to you," he said, and he meant it.


A year before the election, Jimmy Carter didn't even make it onto lists of potential presidents. Carter startled many political experts by finishing second in the Iowa caucuses in January, putting Carter on the political map. Led by the "Peanut Brigade," a group of friends and volunteers from Georgia, Carter mounted a strong grassroots effort in New Hampshire. As a one-term governor from 1971 to 1975, by traditional standards Carter had little chance of becoming a serious contender for the nomination. But when David Brinkley of NBC posed the question, "Can a Georgia peanut farmer find happiness in a cold, Northern state where you couldn't raise a pound of peanuts to save your life?", an affirmative answer was given by 23,373 New Hampshire Democrats.

When Carter first ventured to New Hampshire as a declared candidate in February 1975, he planned to wage a limited effort — enough to make a respectable showing, but not an all-out drive. But after the initial foray, the decision was made to allot more time and resources to the Granite State. New Hampshire had seemed quite receptive to Carter's low-key manner, his charm and the different approach he brought to the issues confronting the nation.

Carter had been the chief executive of a Southern state, not a federal legislator, and the anti-Washington tone of his responses to public policy questions reflected that background. Carter was not a lawyer, but a farmer with a background of military service and that unusual past for a politician seemed to be significant, for as one of his supporters (himself a attorney) put it: "I was tired of lawyers running for major office, and I thought the nation was too — and it might be ready for a good, solid businessman."

Carter brought to the contest a tenacity unmatched by the four other major Democratic hopefuls who entered the New Hampshire primary — U.S. Representative Morris Udall of Arizona, U.S. Senator Birch Bayh of Indiana, former Oklahoma Senator Fred Harris and a former ambassador to France, Sargent Shriver.


En la imagen: Morris Udall haciendo campaña, 1976.

By 1976 it was obvious no presidential aspirant could afford to bypass the kickoff primary. There was one greater risk than running here and losing: not to compete at all — a lesson Senator Henry Jackson of Washington learned the hard way. Jackson's political operatives worried for months about entering the NH primary. They determined that Jackson's presidential hopes would be better served by not bothering with cranky New Hampshire. Jackson's absence guaranteed Jimmy Carter unchallenged access to moderate-to-conservative Democrats, a group to whom Jackson would have had some appeal. Morris Udall, meanwhile, had to compete with Bayh, Harris and Shriver for the moderate-to-liberal constituency.

Had Senator Jackson entered the primary, Udall's loss to Carter by just 4,663 votes might not have happened. Carter managed to win seven of the 10 counties. Yet the votes for Bayh (15.3 percent), Harris (10.9 percent) and Shriver (8.3 percent) carried a meaning well explained by one New Hampshire activist: "if one less liberal had run here, or if a conservative such as Henry Jackson had entered, Mo Udall and not Jimmy Carter would have had the cover stories on Newsweek and Time shortly afterward, and the outcome at the convention might well not have been the same."


En la imagen: Jimmy Carter, 1976.

After the New Hampshire victory, Governor Carter proceeded to slowly but steadily accumulate delegates in primaries around the nation. After a disappointing loss in Massachusetts, the next crucial battleground was Florida, where Democrats were counting on Carter to defeat George Wallace, the arch-segregationist former governor of Alabama. "By decisively defeating George Wallace," notes historian Dan T. Carter, "he not only succeeded in doing what the liberal [Democrats] wanted him to do, but transformed himself into a really powerful, major candidate." He defeated George Wallace in Florida and North Carolina, thus eliminating his main rival in the South.

Carter defeated Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson in Pennsylvania, thus forcing Jackson to quit the race. In the Wisconsin primary Carter scored an impressive come-from-behind victory over Arizona Congressman Morris Udall, thus eliminating Udall as a serious contender. Alarmed that this southerner they hardly knew might become their nominee, liberals mounted what became known as the "ABC Movement" -- Anyone But Carter. Liberals were worried that Carter's Southern upbringing would make him too conservative for the Democratic Party. The leaders of the "ABC" movement - Idaho Senator Frank Church and California Governor Jerry Brown - both announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination and defeated Carter in several late primaries. However, their campaigns both started too late to prevent Carter from gathering the remaining delegates he needed to capture the nomination. So by the time the Democrats descended on New York in mid-July for their convention, the nomination was Carter's.

By June, Carter had the nomination sufficiently locked up and could take time to interview potential vice-presidential candidates. The pundits predicted that Frank Church would be tapped to provide balance as an experienced senator with strong liberal credentials. Church promoted himself, persuading friends to intervene with Carter in his behalf. If a quick choice had been required as in past conventions, Carter later recalled, he would probably have chosen Church. But the longer period for deliberation gave Carter time to worry about his compatibility with the publicity-seeking Church, who had a tendency to be long-winded. Instead, Carter invited Senators Edmund Muskie, John Glenn, and Walter Mondale to visit his home in Plains, Georgia, for personal interviews, while Church, Henry Jackson, and Adlai Stevenson III would be interviewed at the convention in New York.

Mondale was considered a long shot. But the two men (and their wives) hit it off, and Mondale's preparation, likable personality, and ties to the party establishment led Carter to choose the liberal Senator from Minnesota as his running mate. To provide some suspense for the convention, Carter waited until the last moment to announce his choice. When the offer finally came, Mondale accepted instantly. The major emphasis at the convention was to create an appearance of party unity, which had been lacking in the 1968 and 1972 Democratic Conventions. Carter easily won the nomination on the first ballot. (...)

Mapa de las primarias demócratas de 1976

En la imagen: Jimmy Carter y Walter Mondale en la Convención Demócrata, en Nueva York, julio de 1976.

domingo, 17 de junio de 2007

Gora Athletic, orain eta beti!

Sorpresas en Carolina del Sur

Última encuesta de Mason-Dixon para las primarias, tanto demócratas como republicanas, de Carolina del Sur. La primera primaria sureña. Sorprendentes resultados. En el lado demócrata, con Hillary Clinton ampliando su ventaja a nivel nacional, Barack Obama parece el favorito en Carolina del Sur con una ventaja de 9 puntos sobre la Senadora por Nueva York.

Entre los republicanos, la sorpresa es aún mayor. La primera opción republicana de los votantes de Carolina del Sur es el ex Senador Fred Thompson, quien aún ni siquiera es candidato oficialmente. Parece que la cercanía geográfica del estado con el Tennessee natal de Thompson, explica en parte los sensacionales números del actor.

Así pues, a día de hoy tendríamos... entre los demócratas a Edwards liderando las encuestas en Iowa, Hillary a nivel nacional y en New Hampshire, y Obama en Carolina del Sur... y entre los republicanos a Romney en Iowa y New Hampshire, y Thompson en Carolina del Sur, mientras Giuliani domina a nivel nacional. Llamativo el derrumbe de John McCain en Carolina del Sur, donde cuenta con el apoyo declarado de las figuras republicanas más importantes del estado.

(...) Obama led in the new poll with 34 percent of likely voters to 25 percent for Clinton. Edwards was third at 12 percent. Sen. Joe Biden was at 2 percent; so was former Vice President Al Gore, who has given no indication of running but whose name was volunteered by some voters. Twenty-four percent were undecided.

Thompson, a television actor and former Tennessee senator, topped Giuliani by 25 percent to 21 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was next at 11 percent, followed by McCain at 7 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 5 percent. Huckabee has gotten strong notices in the last two Republican debates. Twenty-eight percent were undecided.
(...)

sábado, 16 de junio de 2007

1968 Democratic Presidential Nomination

La decisión fue particularmente difícil para los demócratas en 1968, debido a la división del partido por la Guerra de Vietnam, y por el asesinato de uno de los candidatos favoritos, Bobby Kennedy, el preferido de las masas. Este trágico acontecimiento, unido a la evidente falta de conexión entre el aparato del partido y sus bases, hizo del proceso de nominación un auténtico caos que quedó evidenciado en la convulsa Convención Demócrata celebrada en Chicago en el verano de aquel año.

Finalmente se impuso el hombre del aparato, el Vicepresidente Hubert Humphrey. Un antiguo héroe de los progresistas y los sindicatos, convertido ahora en un villano por su defensa de la Guerra de Vietnam.

El Presidente Lyndon Johnson se disponía a presentarse a la nominación, hasta que, tras sus pobres números en New Hampshire, decidió retirarse. Entonces se disputaría la candidatura entre: el Senador Eugene McCarthy, de Minnesota; el Senador Robert Kennedy, de Nueva York; el Senador George McGovern, de Dakota del Sur; y el Vicepresidente Hubert Humphrey.


Fuente: Wikipedia

(...) Though President Lyndon Johnson had served during two presidential terms, the 22nd Amendment did not disqualify Johnson from running for another term, because he had only served 14 months following John F. Kennedy's assassination before being elected to his "second" term in 1964. As a result, it was widely assumed when 1968 began that President Johnson would be the Democratic nominee, and that he would have little trouble in winning the Democratic nomination

Despite the growing opposition to Johnson's policies in Vietnam, no prominent Democratic candidate was prepared to run against a sitting President of his own party. Even Senator Robert Kennedy of New York, an outspoken critic of Johnson's policies with a large base of support, refused to run against Johnson in the primaries. Only Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota proved willing to openly challenge Johnson. Running as an anti-war candidate in the New Hampshire primary, McCarthy hoped to pressure the Democrats into publicly opposing the Vietnam War.

Normally, an incumbent president faces little formidable opposition within his own party. However, McCarthy, although he was trailing badly in the national polls, decided to pour most of his resources into New Hampshire, the first state to hold a primary election. He was boosted by thousands of young college students, who shaved their beards and cut their hair to be "Clean for Gene". These students rang doorbells and worked hard in New Hampshire for McCarthy.


En la imagen: el Senador Eugene McCarthy

On March 12, McCarthy won 42% of the primary vote to Johnson's 49%, an amazingly strong showing for such a challenger, and one which gave McCarthy's campaign legitimacy and momentum. The momentum ended, however, when Senator Robert F. Kennedy announced his candidacy four days later, on March 16, as McCarthy supporters cried betrayal and vowed to defeat Kennedy. Thereafter McCarthy and Kennedy would engage in an increasingly bitter series of state primaries; although Kennedy won most of the primaries, he could never shake McCarthy and his devoted following of antiwar activists, which included many Hollywood celebrities such as Paul Newman, Barbra Streisand, and Burt Lancaster.

On March 31, 1968, following the New Hampshire primaries and Kennedy's entry into the election, the President startled the nation by announcing he would not seek re-election. (Not discussed publicly at the time was Johnson's concern that he might not survive another term - Johnson's health was poor, and he had suffered a serious heart attack in 1955.)

Bleak political forecasts also contributed to Johnson's withdrawal: internal polling by Johnson's campaign in Wisconsin, the next state to hold a primary election, showed the President trailing badly, and in fact he lost the primary to McCarthy. He did not even leave The White House to campaign in Wisconsin. Johnson had lost control of the Democratic Party, which was splitting into four factions, each of which distrusted the other three.

*The first faction comprised labor unions and big-city party bosses (led by Mayor Richard J. Daley). This group had traditionally controlled the Democratic Party since the days of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, and they feared their loss of control over the party. After Johnson's withdrawal this group rallied to support Hubert H. Humphrey, Johnson's Vice-President; it was also believed that President Johnson himself was covertly supporting Humphrey, despite his public claims of neutrality.

*The second group, which rallied behind Senator McCarthy, was composed of students and intellectuals who had been the early spokespeople against the war in Vietnam; they perceived themselves as the future of the Democratic Party.

*The third group was primarily composed of Catholics, African-Americans, and other racial and ethnic minorities; these groups rallied behind Senator Robert Kennedy.

*The fourth group consisted of conservative white Southern Democrats, or "Dixiecrats." Some members (probably older ones remembering the New Deal's positive impact upon rural areas) of this group supported Vice-President Humphrey, but most of them would rally behind George C. Wallace and the Alabama governor's third-party campaign in the general election.

Since the Vietnam War had become the major issue that was dividing the Democratic Party, and Johnson had come to symbolize the war for many liberal Democrats, Johnson believed that he could not win the nomination without a major struggle, and that he would probably lose the election in November to the Republicans.


En la imagen: portada del Chicago Tribune. "LBJ won't run".

However, by withdrawing from the race he could avoid the stigma of defeat, and he could keep control of the party machinery by giving the nomination to Humphrey, who had been a loyal Vice-President. As the year developed, it also became clear that Johnson believed he could secure his place in the history books by ending the war before the election in November, thus giving Humphrey the boost he would need to win.

After Johnson's withdrawal, Vice President Hubert Humphrey announced his candidacy. Kennedy was successful in four primaries and McCarthy five; however, in primaries where they campaigned directly against one another, Kennedy won three primaries and McCarthy one. Humphrey, for the most part, did not compete in the primaries, leaving that job to favorite sons who were his surrogates, notably Senator George A. Smathers from Florida, Senator Stephen M. Young from Ohio, and Governor Roger D. Branigin of Indiana.

Kennedy defeated Branigan and McCarthy in the Indiana primary, and then defeated McCarthy in the Nebraska primary. However, McCarthy upset Kennedy in the Oregon primary - this was considered important because it was the first time a Kennedy had ever lost an election. After Kennedy's defeat in Oregon, the California primary was seen as crucial to both Kennedy and McCarthy. McCarthy stumped the state's many colleges and universities, where he was treated as a hero for being the first presidential candidate to oppose the war.


En la imagen: el Senador Bobby Kennedy.

Kennedy campaigned in the ghettos and barrios of the state's larger cities, where he was mobbed by enthusiastic supporters. Kennedy and McCarthy engaged in a television debate a few days before the election, it was generally considered a draw. On June 5 Kennedy narrowly defeated McCarthy in California, 46% - 42%. However, McCarthy refused to withdraw from the race and made it clear that he would contest Kennedy in the upcoming New York primary, where McCarthy had much support from antiwar activists in New York City.

The New York primary quickly became a moot point, however, for on the night of June 5, Kennedy was shot shortly after midnight; he died twenty-six hours later. Kennedy had just given his California primary victory speech in a crowded ballroom of the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles; he and his aides squeezed into a kitchen on their way to another ballroom to celebrate their victory. In the kitchen Kennedy was shot by Sirhan Sirhan, a young Palestinian militant who disliked Kennedy because of his support for the nation of Israel.

Political historians have debated to this day whether Kennedy could have won the Democratic nomination had he lived. Some historians, such as Theodore H. White and Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., have argued that Kennedy's broad appeal and famed "charisma" would have convinced the party bosses at the Democratic Convention to give him the nomination.

However, other writers such as Tom Wicker, who covered the Kennedy campaign for The New York Times, believe that Humphrey's large lead in delegate votes from non-primary states, combined with Senator McCarthy's refusal to quit the race, would have prevented Kennedy from ever winning a majority at the Democratic Convention, and that Humphrey would have been the Democratic nominee even if Kennedy had lived. At the moment of RFK's death, the delegate totals were:

*Hubert Humphrey 561
*Robert Kennedy 393
*Eugene McCarthy 258

Robert Kennedy's death altered the dynamics of the race, and threw the Democratic Party into disarray. Although Humphrey appeared the prohibitive favorite for the nomination, thanks to his support from the traditional power blocs of the party, he was an unpopular choice with many of the anti-war elements within the party, who identified him with Johnson's controversial position on the Vietnam War.

However, Kennedy's delegates failed to unite behind a single candidate who could have prevented Humphrey from getting the nomination. Some of Kennedy's support went to McCarthy, but many of Kennedy's delegates, remembering their bitter primary battles with McCarthy, refused to vote for him. Instead, these delegates rallied around the late-starting candidacy of Senator George McGovern of South Dakota, a Kennedy supporter in the spring primaries, and who had presidential ambitions. However, by dividing the antiwar votes at the Democratic Convention, it made it easier for Humphrey to gather the delegates he needed to win the nomination.

When the 1968 Democratic National Convention opened in Chicago, thousands of young antiwar activists from around the nation gathered in the city to protest the Vietnam War. In a clash which was covered on live television, Americans were shocked to see Chicago police brutally beating anti-war protesters in the streets of Chicago. While the protestors chanted "the world is watching", the police used clubs and tear gas to beat back the protestors, leaving many of them bloody and dazed. The tear gas even wafted into numerous hotel suites; in one of them Vice-President Humphrey was watching the proceedings on television.


Meanwhile, the convention itself was marred by the strong-arm tactics of Chicago's mayor Richard J. Daley (who was seen on television angrily cursing Senator Abraham Ribicoff of Connecticut, who made a speech at the convention denouncing the excesses of the Chicago police in the riots). In the end, the nomination itself was anticlimactic, with Vice President Humphrey handily beating McCarthy and McGovern on the first ballot. The convention then chose Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine as Humphrey's running mate. However, the tragedy of the antiwar riots crippled Humphrey's campaign from the start, and it never fully recovered.

The Votes at the Convention:

*Hubert Humphrey 1759
*Eugene McCarthy 601
*George McGovern 146
*Channing Phillips 67
*Daniel Moore 17
*Others 30 (...)

En el video: el asesinato del Senador Robert Kennedy la noche del 5 de junio de 1968 en Los Angeles, después de pronunciar su discurso.