jueves, 15 de mayo de 2008

Si Hillary quiere la Vicepresidencia...

Bob Beckel, el que fuera campaign manager de Walter Mondale en 1984 y responsable de su famosa línea "Where's the beef?", pone en duda que el Senador Barack Obama vaya a tener la libertad que suelen tener habitualmente los candidatos presidenciales para escoger a su compañero de ticket. Opina que si Hillary Clinton desea competir por la Vicepresidencia, Obama no podrá evitarlo. Posiblemente no le falta razón. If Clinton Wants VP, Obama Can't Stop Her

(...) Does Hillary Clinton want to be the Democrats vice presidential candidate? Probably. Could she get on the ticket by dropping out before the last states vote on June 3rd? Definitely not. Does Barack Obama want her on the ticket? Absolutely not. Can he stop her if she wants it? Probably not. Why not? Super delegates are why not.

When the last pledged delegates are totaled on June 3rd, and assuming the current demographic support continues for both candidates (and baring a major development they will), Barack Obama will have around 1690 delegates and Hillary Clinton around 1550. Add in their current super delegate support and Obama will have 1980 total delegates, and Clinton 1825.

(...) So Barack Obama is free to pick a running mate? Not so fast. Her losing margin of 150 is only 19% of the super delegates at the convention. Most of the 795 super delegates have been put under enormous pressure by both candidates for months. For those that chose Obama the decision was an especially painful one both personally and politically.

Almost all super delegates have had a long history with the Clintons. Many have only personally known Barack Obama a few months. Many who sided with Obama have benefited professionally, financially, and politically from their relationship with the Clintons. Many had jobs, and good ones, in the Clinton Administration. Many have been the recipients of tens of thousands of dollars raised on their behalf by the Clintons.

(...) Super delegate, "Mr. President, this is the hardest thing I've ever had to do, but I'm going with Obama because (whatever). Ask me for anything else Mr. President, but I've got to do this". Clinton, "I'm very disappointed and personally hurt, but do what you think you have to do. So long."


Now imagine its June 4th and Clinton calls again. Clinton, "I know Obama has enough votes to win, but I wanted you to know Hillary has decided to run for vice president at the convention. You know there are two roll call votes at the convention: first president then for vice president. I know you are voting for Obama for president. Fine, but I want your commitment to vote for Hillary for vice president."

You imagine being on the floor in Denver. Hillary's delegates, NEARLY HALF THE DELEGATES, are demanding she be on the ticket. These are true believers who have stuck with Clinton through thick and thin. To them, putting Hillary on the ticket is a crusade.

Continúa... (...)