Ganar sin Florida y Ohio

Sin descartar Ohio, la campaña de Obama está tratando de convencer a militantes y donantes del partido que existe una segunda vía para asegurar la victoria en el colegio electoral, que pasa por ganar en dos estados sureños -Virginia y Georgia- y algunos de los estados en apariencia más competitivos del Oeste montañoso -Colorado, Nevada, Montana, Dakota del Norte y New Mexico. Aunque aseguran que no por ello descartan ganar la Presidencia con Ohio o Florida, y presentan la alternativa como una apuesta ambiciosa, muchos demócratas están algo inquietos cuando desde Team Obama se les reclama con tanta insistencia tener fe en una segunda vía que parece mucho más complicada que darle la vuelta a un sólo estado de 20 votos electorales como Ohio -un estado que hace menos de dos años eligió un Gobernador y un Senador demócratas, pero cuyas características demográficas no parecen propicias para Obama. Obama camp sees possible win without Ohio, Fla.

(...) In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined several alternatives to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House that runs counter to the conventional wisdom of recent elections.

At a fundraiser held at a Washington brewery Friday, Plouffe told a largely young crowd that the electoral map would be fundamentally different from the one in 2004. Wins in Ohio and Florida would guarantee Obama the presidency if he holds onto the states won by Democrat John Kerry, Plouffe said, but those two battlegrounds aren't required for victory.

Florida, which has 27 electoral votes this year, gave the presidency to George W. Bush in the disputed election of 2000. Ohio, with its 20 electoral votes, ensured Bush of re-election in 2004 in his race against Kerry.

The presumed Democratic nominee's electoral math counts on holding onto the states Kerry won, among them Michigan (17 electoral votes), where Obama campaigns on Monday and Tuesday. Plouffe said most of the Kerry states should be reliable for Obama, but three currently look relatively competitive with Republican rival John McCain — Pennsylvania, Michigan and particularly New Hampshire.

Asked about his remarks, Plouffe said Ohio and Florida start out very competitive — but he stressed that they are not tougher than other swing states and said Obama will play "extremely hard" for both. But he said the strategy is not reliant on one or two states.

"You have a lot of ways to get to 270," Plouffe said. "Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on November 4th."

(...) Plouffe and his aides are weighing where to contest, and where chances are too slim to marshal a large effort. A win in Virginia (13 electoral votes) or Georgia (15 votes) could give Obama a shot if he, like Kerry, loses Ohio or Florida.

Plouffe also has been touting Obama's appeal in once Republican-leaning states where Democrats have made gains in recent gubernatorial and congressional races, such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Alaska and North Dakota. (...)