Team McCain avisa del Exit-Poll-Drama

Team McCain advierte sobre las encuestas a pie de urna que proliferarán en la tarde-noche de mañana. Creen que exagerarán la intención de voto de Obama, como en el pasado lo hicieron con otros demócratas como Kerry o Dukakis.

(...) Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:

1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004

4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls. (...)