Actualización - Ken Buck (R) ha aceptado su derrota en Colorado. A falta de conocer ganador en Washington, los republicanos pasarán a controlar 47 escaños en el nuevo Senado. Al empezar 2010 tenían sólo 40. En una cámara estática como el Senado es un gran avance para un sólo año, pero han dejado escapar tres escaños por una mala selección de candidatos (O'Donnell, Angle y Buck) que no han sabido ganarse la confianza de los votantes independientes en sus estados. Y esos escaños no volverán a ser disputables hasta dentro de seis largos años.
En la Cámara de Representantes quedan 10 escaños por adjudicar. A esta hora todo sigue igual, con los republicanos con 61 escaños más de los que tenían hasta ahora. 239 escaños republicanos y 185 demócratas. Las proyecciones dicen que los republicanos alcanzarán posiblemente 243 escaños.
En Gobernadores Kitzhaber (D) se ha colocado en cabeza en el recuento de Oregon por unos pocos votos. Si los demócratas conservan Oregon e Illinois y ganan Minnesota y Vermont, y los republicanos conservan Connecticut, la cosa quedaría en una ganancia neta de +7 para los republicanos. El mapa quedaría con 31 gobernadores republicanos, 18 gobernadores demócratas, y 1 gobernador independiente.
Actualización - El Denver Post ha declarado ganador al Senador Michael Bennet (D) en Colorado, pero Buck (R) se niega a conceder la elección hasta que se cuenten todos los votos. Con el 89% del voto escrutado, Bennet ganaba con 792,216 votos (48%) frente a los 777,120 (47%) de Buck.
Han ocurrido algunas cosas extrañas que han llevado a la confusión a lo largo de la noche. Unos 40,000 votos de los suburbios de Denver que fueron adjudicados en un primer momento a Buck, pasaron después a Bennet porque al parecer los habían contado mal. El equipo de Buck está esperando si su candidato consigue estrechar la desventaja para pedir un recuento. En Colorado para tener derecho a un recuento la ventaja del ganador debe ser inferior a 5,000 votos me parece. De momento no podría.
En el típico apagón de Washington Dino Rossi debe estar recordando su mala experiencia de 2004. Aquel año ganó las elecciones a Gobernador en el primer conteo por 261 votos, pero su rival demócrata y actual Gobernadora Christine Gregoire pidió un recuento. En el recuento aparecieron votos sorpresa que no habían sido contados en Seattle y Rossi perdió por 130 votos.
Ahora Murray (D) tiene una ventaja de unos 14,000 votos sobre un total de algo menos de un millón y medio de votos contados (entre un 60 y un 65% escrutado) -empate 50%, 50%. Quedan unos 600,000 votos por contar, nadie sabe con certeza en qué condados, ni cuánto de ese voto es voto por correo (tradicionalmente favorable al GOP). Los republicanos dicen que algo así como la mitad del voto que queda por contar es de los condados de Spokane y Clark, que están siendo ganados cómodamente por Rossi. Los demócratas dicen que algo así como dos tercios de lo que queda es del condado de King (Seattle). Murray está ganando el condado de King (Seattle) con un 60%.
Podéis apostar a que Murray encontrará en Seattle lo que necesite para ganar.
Actualización -
Rick Scott (R) nuevo Gobernador de Florida.
Paul LePage (R) ha sido declarado ganador en la elección para Gobernador de Maine. Los demócratas gobernaban Maine hasta ahora. De momento los republicanos han capturado 11 estados gobernados por demócratas, y los demócratas dos estados gobernados por republicanos, la ganancia neta provisional para el GOP queda en +9.
Faltan dos estados que irán casi seguro para los demócratas (Minnesota y Vermont, con gobernadores republicanos que se retiran) y otros dos Connecticut y Oregon que pueden ir para cualquiera. La ganancia neta del GOP en gobernadores se quedará entre +6 y +8 en función de si ganan Oregon o mantienen Connecticut. De modo que el GOP quedará con entre 29 y 32 gobernadores y los demócratas con entre 17 y 20.
En Illinois Quinn (D) y Brady (R) siguen empatados.
-------------------------------
A ver, recapitulemos.
Cámara de Representantes: los republicanos ya han sumado +61 escaños oficialmente y faltan 13 por adjudicar. Es la mayor pérdida de escaños para los demócratas desde hace 72 años, y un vuelco sólo superado dos veces en el Siglo XX. Es improbable que esto lo volvamos a ver. Con esa mayoría John Boehner será el Speaker republicano más poderoso desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial.
Han caído pesos pesados demócratas como Ike Skelton (presidente del Comité de Defensa), John Spratt (presidente del Comité de Presupuestos), Chet Edwards, Earl Pomeroy o Stanford Bishop. El intocable Jim Oberstar, presidente del Comité de Transportes y Obras Públicas, ha caído también derrotado en el 8º distrito de Minnesota, en uno de los mayores shocks de la noche. Ese distrito no elegía a un republicano desde 1944. Otros como Solomon Ortiz (28 años representando el 29º distrito de Texas) están todavía luchando por su vida con muchas posibilidades de perder.
Las encuestas no se han equivocado.
Senado: son oficiales las victorias republicanas en Indiana, Dakota del Norte, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania e Illinois. Esto hace un +6 para el GOP. Faltan Colorado y Washington.
En Nevada los demócratas han tenido su victoria moral con la reelección de Harry Reid. Los republicanos lo han tenido en Illinois haciéndose con el escaño de Obama.
En Colorado el Senador Michael Bennet (D) está aguantando -con un 87% escrutado, Bennet 48%, Buck 47%. Buck puede tener el mismo problema que Angle en Nevada, no está funcionando bien entre los independientes y las mujeres. Y en Washington máxima igualdad con un 65% escrutado -Murray 50%, Rossi 50%. Rossi lo está haciendo mejor que Murray entre los independientes, pero en Washington hay muchos demócratas registrados y eso sostiene a Murray.
Las encuestas han estado acertadas en general. Sólo han fallado en Nevada. El avance del GOP en el Senado no está mal en un año en que los escaños en juego no reflejaban la distribución real de la cámara, porque mientras en el total los demócratas tenían una ventaja de 18 escaños, en el tercio sometido a elecciones este año había el mismo número de escaños demócratas y republicanos. Estos eran escaños que se sometieron a elección en 2004, año muy favorable al GOP. Las carreras han tenido lugar mayoritariamente en estados variables o demócratas. En 2012 le tocará a la clase de 2006, año en que muchos demócratas fueron elegidos en estados republicanos como Montana, Nebraska, Missouri, Virginia, etc. y que tendrán que buscar la reelección.
Desde esa perspectiva el avance permite a los republicanos tener a tiro la mayoría en el Senado en 2012, independientemente de lo que ocurra en las presidenciales. Pero deben estar muy decepcionados por no haber maximizado sus opciones este año. Delaware, Nevada y Colorado con Mike Castle, Sue Lowden y Jane Norton de candidatos hubieran sido republicanos. Y ahora estarían esperando a Washington para saber si alcanzaban la mayoría.
El establishment republicano tratará de reivindicarse frente al Tea Party.
Gobernadores: ganancias esperadas para el GOP. Los republicanos están ahora mismo en +8: han arrebatado a los demócratas Pennsylvania, Ohio, Tennessee, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico y Wyoming; los demócratas han recuperado California y Hawaii.
Florida es un puro empate: 89% escrutado, 49% Scott (R), Sink (D) 48%
Illinois es otro empate: 93% escrutado, Quinn (D) 46%, Brady (R) 46%
Los republicanos pueden hacerse con Oregon: 82% escrutado, Dudley (R) 50%, Kitzhaber (D) 48%
En Maine el independiente Eliot Cutler está siendo la gran sorpresa. Con el 87% escrutado, LePage (R) 38%, Cutler (I) 37%.
En Minnesota empate, con el republicano Tom Emmer (R) haciéndolo mejor de lo esperado. Y en Connecticut los republicanos parece que pueden mantener la Gobernación, algo que hace semanas parecía perdido.
Rhode Island para el independiente Lincoln Chaffe.
El titular es el avance del GOP en los estados del Medio Oeste.
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta cámara. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta cámara. Mostrar todas las entradas
jueves, 4 de noviembre de 2010
miércoles, 3 de noviembre de 2010
Grandes triunfadores: John Boehner (R)
El Congresista John Boehner (R - Ohio) será el nuevo Speaker of the House. Será el decimoquinto Speaker republicano y el tercero que da el gran estado de Ohio. Le tocará liderar la más amplia mayoría republicana de las últimas seis décadas. Lista de Speakers of the House.
martes, 2 de noviembre de 2010
Cámara: guía para la noche electoral
Las elecciones al Senado y a gobernadores son fáciles de seguir porque son relativamente pocas. Lo complicado es ir siguiendo las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes sin perderse y teniendo más o menos claro lo que significa cada resultado. Para hacerlo más fácil, Nate Silver (New York Times) nos ha facilitado una completa guía que nos dice en qué distritos debemos fijarnos en cada hora de cierre de urnas (desde las 6 pm hasta las 12 am), y cómo interpretar los resultados en cada uno de esos distritos. Tenerla a mano esta noche.
(...) The one thing that I’d like to draw your attention to is the statistic in parenthesis in the lower left-hand corner of the box: this is what we call the magic number. What this statistic indicates is how many seats we’d expect the Republicans to gain on the Democrats over all if they won this particular seat and all seats in which we have them favored by a larger margin.
In this particular example, for instance — the New York 19th congressional district, in which we have the Republican Nan Hayworth favored by 3 points — the magic number is 43. That means that if Republicans won this seat — and all other seats in which they were favored by more than 3 points, but none of the seats in which we had them favored by fewer than 3 points — they would finish with a gain of 43 seats on Democrats over all on the night. Another way to look at the magic number is that it’s the number of seats we’d expect Republicans to win nationwide if they won this particular district by exactly 1 vote (and we had no information about what had taken place in any other district).
Occasionally, the magic number will be negative; these are seats that, if the G.O.P. lost them, would imply that it were actually going to lose seats in the House overall.
What you should be looking for is whether Republicans are consistently winning seats with magic numbers in the 60s, 70s, 80s or higher. If so, they could be in for a very big night. Conversely, if Democrats are holding onto seats with magic numbers in the teens, 20s, or 30s, that means they are overperforming their forecasts and could hold the House.
(...) All right, that’s enough buildup. Let’s show you what to look for beginning at 6 p.m., when we’ll begin to see the first results from Indiana and Kentucky.
Baron Hill’s seat, the Indiana 9th, has long been one of the most competitive in the country. I don’t think you should get too swept up in the results of any one particular congressional district — not when there are 435 of them in every corner of the country. But Mr. Hill, a middle-of-the-road Democrat who ordinarily performs strongly in his fairly rural, somewhat Republican-leaning district, but who voted for the health care bill and the stimulus, is in a position that is fairly typical for Democratic incumbents around the country this year. Also, the district has a magic number of 41, which means that it’s right at the cusp of what Republicans would need to take over the House. If they fail to win it, that could be the first sign that they’re liable to do a hair worse than expected. If they win it by a margin in the high single digits or the double digits, however, it could suggest that a lot of Democratic incumbents, many of whom are less skilled than Mr. Hill at understanding how to run a strong campaign in their districts, are going to be in trouble.
Joe Donnelly, in the Indiana 2nd district, is one Democrat whose polls have held up fairly well in spite of the Republican wave. Our model has him favored by just 2 points, however, and if he were to lose, that would be a good early sign for Republicans.
Indiana’s 8th district, vacated by Brad Ellsworth, is very likely to be a Republican pickup. If they’re having trouble winning it, that’s a reasonably bad sign for them.
Indiana’s 7th and 3rd congressional districts are not likely to be especially competitive. If these races wind up within the single digits, something really weird might be afoot.
I’d be a little bit more cautious about reading too much into the two Kentucky districts on our chart, the 6th and the 3rd, just because Kentucky is a fairly idiosyncratic state to begin with, and both the polling and the Senate race have been strange there. Still, John Yarmuth’s 3rd district, which encompasses Louisville, reflects a strong potential upside case for the G.O.P. if they were to win it.
At 7 p.m. polls will close in most of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.
Continuar leyendo. (...)
(...) The one thing that I’d like to draw your attention to is the statistic in parenthesis in the lower left-hand corner of the box: this is what we call the magic number. What this statistic indicates is how many seats we’d expect the Republicans to gain on the Democrats over all if they won this particular seat and all seats in which we have them favored by a larger margin.
In this particular example, for instance — the New York 19th congressional district, in which we have the Republican Nan Hayworth favored by 3 points — the magic number is 43. That means that if Republicans won this seat — and all other seats in which they were favored by more than 3 points, but none of the seats in which we had them favored by fewer than 3 points — they would finish with a gain of 43 seats on Democrats over all on the night. Another way to look at the magic number is that it’s the number of seats we’d expect Republicans to win nationwide if they won this particular district by exactly 1 vote (and we had no information about what had taken place in any other district).
Occasionally, the magic number will be negative; these are seats that, if the G.O.P. lost them, would imply that it were actually going to lose seats in the House overall.
What you should be looking for is whether Republicans are consistently winning seats with magic numbers in the 60s, 70s, 80s or higher. If so, they could be in for a very big night. Conversely, if Democrats are holding onto seats with magic numbers in the teens, 20s, or 30s, that means they are overperforming their forecasts and could hold the House.
(...) All right, that’s enough buildup. Let’s show you what to look for beginning at 6 p.m., when we’ll begin to see the first results from Indiana and Kentucky.
Baron Hill’s seat, the Indiana 9th, has long been one of the most competitive in the country. I don’t think you should get too swept up in the results of any one particular congressional district — not when there are 435 of them in every corner of the country. But Mr. Hill, a middle-of-the-road Democrat who ordinarily performs strongly in his fairly rural, somewhat Republican-leaning district, but who voted for the health care bill and the stimulus, is in a position that is fairly typical for Democratic incumbents around the country this year. Also, the district has a magic number of 41, which means that it’s right at the cusp of what Republicans would need to take over the House. If they fail to win it, that could be the first sign that they’re liable to do a hair worse than expected. If they win it by a margin in the high single digits or the double digits, however, it could suggest that a lot of Democratic incumbents, many of whom are less skilled than Mr. Hill at understanding how to run a strong campaign in their districts, are going to be in trouble.
Joe Donnelly, in the Indiana 2nd district, is one Democrat whose polls have held up fairly well in spite of the Republican wave. Our model has him favored by just 2 points, however, and if he were to lose, that would be a good early sign for Republicans.
Indiana’s 8th district, vacated by Brad Ellsworth, is very likely to be a Republican pickup. If they’re having trouble winning it, that’s a reasonably bad sign for them.
Indiana’s 7th and 3rd congressional districts are not likely to be especially competitive. If these races wind up within the single digits, something really weird might be afoot.
I’d be a little bit more cautious about reading too much into the two Kentucky districts on our chart, the 6th and the 3rd, just because Kentucky is a fairly idiosyncratic state to begin with, and both the polling and the Senate race have been strange there. Still, John Yarmuth’s 3rd district, which encompasses Louisville, reflects a strong potential upside case for the G.O.P. if they were to win it.
At 7 p.m. polls will close in most of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.
Continuar leyendo. (...)
lunes, 1 de noviembre de 2010
Números del voto por adelantado
En la web del United States Election Project de la George Mason University de Virginia podéis consultar los números del voto por adelantado. Jim Geraghty nos ha hecho el favor de hacer un resumen comparando el voto por adelantado de este año con el de 2008. En general son buenos datos para el GOP, con mención especial para Colorado (ojo a Tancredo), Nevada o Florida. En estados como Pennsylvania o Illinois el voto por adelantado tiene muy poco peso y no sirve como referencia.
(...) Colorado: Early voting in 2008: 37.7 percent Democrat, 35.9 percent GOP, 26.4 percent independent.
Early voting in 2010: 35.4 percent Democrat, 41.1 percent GOP, 23 percent independent.
Florida: Early voting in 2008: 45.6 percent Democrat, 37.3 percent Republican, 17.1 percent independent.
Early voting in 2010: 36.5 percent Democrat, 49.2 percent Republican, 14.3 percent independent.
Iowa: In 2008, early votes split 46.9 percent Democrat, 28.9 percent Republican, 24.2 percent other.
In 2010, it is 43.7 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 18.2 percent independent.
Louisiana: In 2008, the state’s early vote was 58 percent registered Democrats, 28.7 Republicans, and 13.3 percent other.
This year, so far, it is 46.7 percent Democrat, 42.3 percent Republican, 10.6 percent other.
African-Americans were 35.6 percent of early voters in 2008; this cycle, so far, they make up 21.3 percent.
Maine: In 2008, the early vote split 41.1 percent Democrat, 27.7 percent Republicans, 31.2 percent other/independent.
So far in 2010, it is 37.6 percent Democrat, 35.6 percent Republican, 24.9 percent independent.
Nevada: Clark and Washoe Counties break down their vote by party registration.
In 2008, Clark was 52 percent Democrat, 30.6 percent Republican, 17.4 percent other.
In 2010, it is 46.2 percent Democrat, 37.4 percent Republican, 16.4 percent independent.
In 2008, Washoe was 47.1 percent Democrat, 35.3 percent Republican, 17.5 percent other.
In 2010, Democrats are at 40.3 percent, Republicans lead with 44.7 percent, and independents are 15 percent.
North Carolina: Barack Obama shocked the nation by winning North Carolina in 2008, and he was helped by an early vote that split 51.4 percent Democrat, 30.2 percent Republican, 18.5 percent none or other. This year the N.C. early vote splits 46.4 percent Democrat, 36.4 percent Republican, 17 percent independent.
African-Americans were 26.5 percent of North Carolina’s early votes in 2008; they are 20.9 percent so far this year.
There have been no changes to the numbers in Pennsylvania (very small number of early voters, heavily GOP), West Virginia (good for Democrats), and Wyoming (good for GOP). (...)
(...) Colorado: Early voting in 2008: 37.7 percent Democrat, 35.9 percent GOP, 26.4 percent independent.
Early voting in 2010: 35.4 percent Democrat, 41.1 percent GOP, 23 percent independent.
Florida: Early voting in 2008: 45.6 percent Democrat, 37.3 percent Republican, 17.1 percent independent.
Early voting in 2010: 36.5 percent Democrat, 49.2 percent Republican, 14.3 percent independent.
Iowa: In 2008, early votes split 46.9 percent Democrat, 28.9 percent Republican, 24.2 percent other.
In 2010, it is 43.7 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 18.2 percent independent.
Louisiana: In 2008, the state’s early vote was 58 percent registered Democrats, 28.7 Republicans, and 13.3 percent other.
This year, so far, it is 46.7 percent Democrat, 42.3 percent Republican, 10.6 percent other.
African-Americans were 35.6 percent of early voters in 2008; this cycle, so far, they make up 21.3 percent.
Maine: In 2008, the early vote split 41.1 percent Democrat, 27.7 percent Republicans, 31.2 percent other/independent.
So far in 2010, it is 37.6 percent Democrat, 35.6 percent Republican, 24.9 percent independent.
Nevada: Clark and Washoe Counties break down their vote by party registration.
In 2008, Clark was 52 percent Democrat, 30.6 percent Republican, 17.4 percent other.
In 2010, it is 46.2 percent Democrat, 37.4 percent Republican, 16.4 percent independent.
In 2008, Washoe was 47.1 percent Democrat, 35.3 percent Republican, 17.5 percent other.
In 2010, Democrats are at 40.3 percent, Republicans lead with 44.7 percent, and independents are 15 percent.
North Carolina: Barack Obama shocked the nation by winning North Carolina in 2008, and he was helped by an early vote that split 51.4 percent Democrat, 30.2 percent Republican, 18.5 percent none or other. This year the N.C. early vote splits 46.4 percent Democrat, 36.4 percent Republican, 17 percent independent.
African-Americans were 26.5 percent of North Carolina’s early votes in 2008; they are 20.9 percent so far this year.
There have been no changes to the numbers in Pennsylvania (very small number of early voters, heavily GOP), West Virginia (good for Democrats), and Wyoming (good for GOP). (...)
Algunas proyecciones (y II)
Stuart Rothenberg (Rothenberg Political Report) da una ganancia neta de entre 55 y 65 escaños para el GOP en la Cámara de Representantes; entre 6 y 8 escaños en el Senado; y entre 6 y 8 gobernadores más.
Nate Silver (New York Times) dice que +53 para los republcianso en la Cámara; +7/8 en el Senado; y +6 en gobernadores.
Nate Silver (New York Times) dice que +53 para los republcianso en la Cámara; +7/8 en el Senado; y +6 en gobernadores.
Cámara: Gallup en el pasado
Jay Cost elaboró hace unos días una lista comparando las últimas cifras del modelo tradicional de Gallup en otras midterms con los resultados reales. En 60 años, la diferencia entre el voto real y la estimación de voto de Gallup para los demócratas nunca ha superado el 3%. La media de error no llega al 1%.
Cámara: 15 puntos de ventaja para el GOP en Gallup
Último y definitivo sondeo de Gallup sobre el voto genérico en las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes. Los republicanos sacan cuatro puntos a los demócratas (48% - 44%) entre votantes registrados y quince puntos (55% - 40%) en el modelo tradicional de votantes probables.
domingo, 31 de octubre de 2010
Último esfuerzo de Obama en IL, PA, CT y OH
El Presidente Obama está cerrando este fin de semana su irregular implicación en la campaña electoral. Lo hace con una gira por el Noreste y el Medio Oeste para movilizar a negros, blancos étnicos, estudiantes, maestros, funcionarios, y demás. Ayer estuvo en Philadelphia (Pennsylvania), Bridgeport (Connecticut), y en casa, en Chicago (Illinois). La visita a Connecticut a tres días de las elecciones llama mucho la atención si miramos los sondeos que llevan varias semanas indicando que Richard Blumenthal (D) ha abierto una cómoda ventaja sobre Linda McMahon (R).
Hoy estará en la Universidad Estatal de Cleveland, en Ohio, apoyando al Gobernador Ted Strickland (D) y a varios candidatos al Congreso. Perder la gobernación de Ohio supondría un duro golpe para su estrategia de reelección en 2012. De Cleveland volverá a la Casa Blanca a celebrar la noche de Halloween. Mañana no tiene previsto hacer campaña, y dedicará la jornada a ejercer de Presidente.
Video: Obama ayer en Chicago, Illinois.
Continúa: Parte 2 / Parte 3
Hoy estará en la Universidad Estatal de Cleveland, en Ohio, apoyando al Gobernador Ted Strickland (D) y a varios candidatos al Congreso. Perder la gobernación de Ohio supondría un duro golpe para su estrategia de reelección en 2012. De Cleveland volverá a la Casa Blanca a celebrar la noche de Halloween. Mañana no tiene previsto hacer campaña, y dedicará la jornada a ejercer de Presidente.
Video: Obama ayer en Chicago, Illinois.
Continúa: Parte 2 / Parte 3
Faltan 2 días
RealClearPolitics dice que el avance republicano en la Cámara de Representantes se situará en algún punto entre +45 y +85. La media es un impresionante +65 escaños.
En el Senado da +8 para el GOP, que quedaría con 51 demócratas y 49 republicanos. En esa proyección los republicanos estarían ganando los escaños demócratas de Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Dakota del Norte, Indiana, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada e Illinois. De esos ocho el más complicado sería Illinois porque allí está el famoso condado de Cook (Chicago), donde en más de una ocasión los difuntos en avanzado estado de descomposición han sido vistos en los colegios electorales votando por los demócratas. Todo puede ocurrir en un estado en el que cuatro de los últimos siete gobernadores han pasado por el calabozo. En la proyección de RCP los demócratas no ganarían ni un sólo escaño republicano en el Senado pero estarían conservando por escaso margen los escaños de Virginia Occidental y Washington, dos objetivos republicanos de primer orden. Y Joe Manchin (D) en Virginia Occidental anda prometiendo que si llega al Senado votará en contra de la agenda de Obama, así que el Senado podría quedar en un complicado equilibrio en los próximos dos años.
En Gobernadores +7 para el GOP, que dejaría a los republicanos gobernando 31 estados, a los demócratas gobernando 18, y un gobernador independiente en Rhode Island.
En el Senado da +8 para el GOP, que quedaría con 51 demócratas y 49 republicanos. En esa proyección los republicanos estarían ganando los escaños demócratas de Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Dakota del Norte, Indiana, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada e Illinois. De esos ocho el más complicado sería Illinois porque allí está el famoso condado de Cook (Chicago), donde en más de una ocasión los difuntos en avanzado estado de descomposición han sido vistos en los colegios electorales votando por los demócratas. Todo puede ocurrir en un estado en el que cuatro de los últimos siete gobernadores han pasado por el calabozo. En la proyección de RCP los demócratas no ganarían ni un sólo escaño republicano en el Senado pero estarían conservando por escaso margen los escaños de Virginia Occidental y Washington, dos objetivos republicanos de primer orden. Y Joe Manchin (D) en Virginia Occidental anda prometiendo que si llega al Senado votará en contra de la agenda de Obama, así que el Senado podría quedar en un complicado equilibrio en los próximos dos años.
En Gobernadores +7 para el GOP, que dejaría a los republicanos gobernando 31 estados, a los demócratas gobernando 18, y un gobernador independiente en Rhode Island.
sábado, 30 de octubre de 2010
Cámara: ¡Oberstar en apuros!
Una encuesta de SurveyUSA muestra al anciano Congresista demócrata Jim Oberstar en empate técnico con su rival republicano. Oberstar lleva 36 años ocupando su escaño y es el presidente del Comité de Transportes y Obras Públicas de la Cámara de Representantes. Su distrito, el 8º de Minnesota, no elige a un republicano desde 1944. Que Oberstar esté teniendo por primera vez en su vida una elección disputada (algo que no tuvo en otros años malos para los demócratas como el 80 o el 94) puede ser el mejor indicador sobre lo que puede pasar el martes en las elecciones a la Cámara.
(...) DFL congressman Jim Oberstar, accustomed to winning with 65% or more of the vote in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, finds himself running even with Republican challenger Chip Cravaack, heading into the final weekend of the campaign, a new SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis shows. Today, it’s 47% Oberstar, 46% Cravaack, a result within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.
Oberstar holds almost all Democrats, his challenger holds almost all Republicans, but Independents in 2010, as they are doing in congressional districts across the country, break 5:3 Republican. Oberstar has an advantage among women, but the Republican has an offsetting advantage among men. Voters 50 and over favor Oberstar by 10 points; voters under 50 favor Cravaack by 14 points. If younger voters turn out in greater-than-usual numbers in this election, Cravaack will win. Those who rarely vote in midterm elections but who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote in this year’s contest back the Republican 5:4. Those who vote more frequently are divided. Voters who say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than they have been in prior years strongly back Cravaack; those less enthusiastic or no more or less enthusiastic than in the past strongly back Oberstar. (...)
(...) DFL congressman Jim Oberstar, accustomed to winning with 65% or more of the vote in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, finds himself running even with Republican challenger Chip Cravaack, heading into the final weekend of the campaign, a new SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis shows. Today, it’s 47% Oberstar, 46% Cravaack, a result within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.
Oberstar holds almost all Democrats, his challenger holds almost all Republicans, but Independents in 2010, as they are doing in congressional districts across the country, break 5:3 Republican. Oberstar has an advantage among women, but the Republican has an offsetting advantage among men. Voters 50 and over favor Oberstar by 10 points; voters under 50 favor Cravaack by 14 points. If younger voters turn out in greater-than-usual numbers in this election, Cravaack will win. Those who rarely vote in midterm elections but who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote in this year’s contest back the Republican 5:4. Those who vote more frequently are divided. Voters who say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than they have been in prior years strongly back Cravaack; those less enthusiastic or no more or less enthusiastic than in the past strongly back Oberstar. (...)
viernes, 29 de octubre de 2010
Algunas proyecciones
En su actualización de hoy, Election Projection proyecta una shockeante ganancia neta de 62 escaños para los republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes. De ocurrir esto sería la mayor pérdida de escaños para los demócratas desde hace 72 años, y un vuelco sólo superado dos veces en el Siglo XX, en 1938 tras la recesión del 37, y en 1922 en plenos escándalos de la Administración Harding. En el Senado proyecta 8 nuevos escaños para los republicanos, que quedarían en 49. Con sólo 37 escaños en competición (18 de ellos ya ocupados por republicanos), los demócratas pasarían de tener una ventaja de 18 escaños a una de sólo 2. Y +7 en gobernadores para el GOP, que dejaría a los republicanos gobernando 31 de los 50 estados.
Larry Sabato (Universidad de Virginia) proyecta +55 para los republicanos en la Cámara. Uno más que los 54 que ganaron en 1994; +8 en el Senado; y +8/9 en gobernadores.
Charlie Cook (Cook Political Report) proyecta que los republicanos avanzarán entre 48 y 60 escaños en la Cámara; entre 7 y 9 en el Senado; y entre 6 y 8 en gobernadores.
Larry Sabato (Universidad de Virginia) proyecta +55 para los republicanos en la Cámara. Uno más que los 54 que ganaron en 1994; +8 en el Senado; y +8/9 en gobernadores.
Charlie Cook (Cook Political Report) proyecta que los republicanos avanzarán entre 48 y 60 escaños en la Cámara; entre 7 y 9 en el Senado; y entre 6 y 8 en gobernadores.
jueves, 28 de octubre de 2010
Cámara: Gallup analiza a los "likely voters"
Un estudio de Gallup sobre votantes probables (likely voters) revela que el número de los que se identifican o se inclinan hacia los republicanos es mayor que en las cuatro elecciones de medio mandato anteriores. Por contra, la identificación con los demócratas ha caído al nivel más bajo en ese mismo periodo. El estudio utiliza un modelo de participación del 40%, que suele ser más o menos lo habitual en unas midterms.
lunes, 25 de octubre de 2010
Cámara: GOP mantiene ventaja en el voto genérico
9 puntos de ventaja (49% - 40%) en Rasmussen.
En Gallup: 4 puntos en votantes registrados; y entre 9 puntos (52% - 43%) y 14 puntos (55% - 41%) en votantes probables (likely voters) según el modelo de participación. Son ventajas sin precedentes para los republicanos en el Generic Congressional Ballot a una semana de las elecciones.
En Gallup: 4 puntos en votantes registrados; y entre 9 puntos (52% - 43%) y 14 puntos (55% - 41%) en votantes probables (likely voters) según el modelo de participación. Son ventajas sin precedentes para los republicanos en el Generic Congressional Ballot a una semana de las elecciones.
La importancia estratégica de las cámaras estatales
La semana que viene también se renuevan las cámaras legislativas estatales en muchos estados. No son un objetivo menor porque en ellas se decidirá la redistribución de los distritos electorales en base al censo de 2010. Tendrán el poder para modificar los límites geográficos de los distritos, de modo que el partido que los controle podrá ajustar esos límites en la relación escaño/votos que más le convenga. Quitar un poco de aquí y meter un poco de allí para que el disrito sea más fácil de ganar en el futuro. Esos cambios pueden perpetuar el control del partido mayoritario sobre la Cámara de Representantes en la próxima década.
Associated Press nos lo explica:
GOP poised to win redistricting supremacy, too
(...) Down-ticket races could dilute Democrats' influence for next 10 years.
WASHINGTON — The Republicans' expected gains next week go way beyond Congress. The GOP could capture new Senate or House majorities in a dozen to 18 states — along with critical new power to redraw district maps and influence elections for a decade to come.
Three of the biggest prizes are New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All three states are expected to lose seats in Congress as a result of the 2010 census, and that's sure to ignite boundary fights. A party's congressman on the wrong end of redistricting can find the district he's represented for years no longer exists.
Democrats have hopes, too. They aim to take away state Senate control in Michigan and Kentucky and the House in Texas and Tennessee. Texas would be a particular victory, since it seems likely to have four more seats to divvy up under the new census. But none of the analysts contacted by The Associated Press predicted the Democrats would succeed in any of those states.
Both houses in Florida, a state that's expected to gain two seats in Congress, are likely to remain under GOP control. Continúa (...)
Associated Press nos lo explica:
GOP poised to win redistricting supremacy, too
(...) Down-ticket races could dilute Democrats' influence for next 10 years.
WASHINGTON — The Republicans' expected gains next week go way beyond Congress. The GOP could capture new Senate or House majorities in a dozen to 18 states — along with critical new power to redraw district maps and influence elections for a decade to come.
Three of the biggest prizes are New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All three states are expected to lose seats in Congress as a result of the 2010 census, and that's sure to ignite boundary fights. A party's congressman on the wrong end of redistricting can find the district he's represented for years no longer exists.
Democrats have hopes, too. They aim to take away state Senate control in Michigan and Kentucky and the House in Texas and Tennessee. Texas would be a particular victory, since it seems likely to have four more seats to divvy up under the new census. But none of the analysts contacted by The Associated Press predicted the Democrats would succeed in any of those states.
Both houses in Florida, a state that's expected to gain two seats in Congress, are likely to remain under GOP control. Continúa (...)
Cámara: por dónde empezar la noche del 2 de noviembre
Chuck Todd (NBC) nos cuenta en qué distritos debemos fijarnos a primera hora de la noche electoral para prever las dimensiones del avance del GOP en las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes.
(...) *** How to spot a GOP wave: On Election Night, which takes place eight days from today, we'll likely be able to tell very early if Republicans are on the verge of taking back the House -- and possibly more. Polls close completely at 7:00 pm ET in five states with a handful of key races: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Virginia. (And we’ll begin to see returns in Indiana at 6:00 pm ET, when many polling places close in the state.) Let’s start with IN-9, which has become the quintessential swing district because Rep. Baron Hill (D) lost the seat in ’04, but won it back in ’06 and was re-elected in ‘08. This race is No. 42 in our House rankings -- right about the number the GOP will need to take back the House (because Dems will likely pick up two to four seats). So if this race is called for Hill’s challenger, Tea Party-backed Todd Young, you know it’s going to be a good night for the GOP.
*** Looking at IN, GA, and KY: Another place to watch is GA-8, because if Republicans are winning it, they could very well be on their way to a gain of 50-plus seats. Rep. Jim Marshall (D) won that district with just 51% in 2006 and 57% in ‘08. The other early House contest to watch is in KY-6, which could forecast a big GOP tidal wave if Republicans are winning it -- or are even running close. The congressman representing that district is Ben Chandler (D), who won his previous contests with 65% (in ’08) and 85% (in ’06). Other races to watch in that first hour: GA-2, IN-2, SC-5, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, and VA-11. And closing at 7:30 are the key races in North Carolina (NC-2, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11), in Ohio (OH-1, OH-6, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18), and in West Virginia (WV-1, WV-3). If Republicans are winning a majority of these 20 races, say hello to Speaker John Boehner. (...)
(...) *** How to spot a GOP wave: On Election Night, which takes place eight days from today, we'll likely be able to tell very early if Republicans are on the verge of taking back the House -- and possibly more. Polls close completely at 7:00 pm ET in five states with a handful of key races: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Virginia. (And we’ll begin to see returns in Indiana at 6:00 pm ET, when many polling places close in the state.) Let’s start with IN-9, which has become the quintessential swing district because Rep. Baron Hill (D) lost the seat in ’04, but won it back in ’06 and was re-elected in ‘08. This race is No. 42 in our House rankings -- right about the number the GOP will need to take back the House (because Dems will likely pick up two to four seats). So if this race is called for Hill’s challenger, Tea Party-backed Todd Young, you know it’s going to be a good night for the GOP.
*** Looking at IN, GA, and KY: Another place to watch is GA-8, because if Republicans are winning it, they could very well be on their way to a gain of 50-plus seats. Rep. Jim Marshall (D) won that district with just 51% in 2006 and 57% in ‘08. The other early House contest to watch is in KY-6, which could forecast a big GOP tidal wave if Republicans are winning it -- or are even running close. The congressman representing that district is Ben Chandler (D), who won his previous contests with 65% (in ’08) and 85% (in ’06). Other races to watch in that first hour: GA-2, IN-2, SC-5, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, and VA-11. And closing at 7:30 are the key races in North Carolina (NC-2, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11), in Ohio (OH-1, OH-6, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18), and in West Virginia (WV-1, WV-3). If Republicans are winning a majority of these 20 races, say hello to Speaker John Boehner. (...)
sábado, 23 de octubre de 2010
Buenas señales para el GOP en el voto por adelantado
En Ohio:
(...) The Hamilton County Board of Elections has done a good job of providing detailed early voting numbers for this election and referencing back to previous elections so we can properly compare where we're at.
So far this year, 16,309 Republicans have returned their absentee ballots. 13,019 Democrats have returned theirs.
In 2008 with the same number of days to go before the election, 15,772 Republicans had submitted their ballots and 20,432 Democrats had submitted theirs.
In other words, at this point in time, more Republicans are turning out in Hamilton County this year than turned out for the presidential election at the same point of time.
And Democrats? Their turnout has reduced by 36%, or about what would be expected in a midterm election.
But Republicans? They are doing the unexpected. They are outperforming what they did in 2008. Pretty amazing.
What makes the Republican advantage so much more impressive? Per the Plain Dealer, Democrats enjoy a 62/38 registration advantage in Hamilton County. (...)
Y en otros estados (impresionante lo de Florida):
(...) The shift in partisan turnout has ranged from Republicans gaining 4.2 percentage points from the 2008 numbers (West Virginia) to 27.4 percentage points in the 2008 numbers (Florida).
(The stunning figure is that 52.8 percent of the more than 778,000 early votes in Florida this year come from registered Republicans.)
Colorado’s early vote is 7.1 percentage points more Republican.
Iowa’s early vote is 10.2 percentage points more Republican.
Louisiana’s early vote is 25.9 percentage points more Republican.
Maine’s early vote is 13.3 percentage points more Republican.
North Carolina’s early vote is 14.9 percentage points more Republican.
In Clark County, Nevada, it is 7.1 percent more Republican; in Washoe County, Nevada, it is 11 percent more Republican.
“The average of these states show that early voting has shifted from a D+16.6 partisan split to a D+1.7 partisan split for a Republican gain of +14.9% since 2008,” Charlie concludes. (...)
(...) The Hamilton County Board of Elections has done a good job of providing detailed early voting numbers for this election and referencing back to previous elections so we can properly compare where we're at.
So far this year, 16,309 Republicans have returned their absentee ballots. 13,019 Democrats have returned theirs.
In 2008 with the same number of days to go before the election, 15,772 Republicans had submitted their ballots and 20,432 Democrats had submitted theirs.
In other words, at this point in time, more Republicans are turning out in Hamilton County this year than turned out for the presidential election at the same point of time.
And Democrats? Their turnout has reduced by 36%, or about what would be expected in a midterm election.
But Republicans? They are doing the unexpected. They are outperforming what they did in 2008. Pretty amazing.
What makes the Republican advantage so much more impressive? Per the Plain Dealer, Democrats enjoy a 62/38 registration advantage in Hamilton County. (...)
Y en otros estados (impresionante lo de Florida):
(...) The shift in partisan turnout has ranged from Republicans gaining 4.2 percentage points from the 2008 numbers (West Virginia) to 27.4 percentage points in the 2008 numbers (Florida).
(The stunning figure is that 52.8 percent of the more than 778,000 early votes in Florida this year come from registered Republicans.)
Colorado’s early vote is 7.1 percentage points more Republican.
Iowa’s early vote is 10.2 percentage points more Republican.
Louisiana’s early vote is 25.9 percentage points more Republican.
Maine’s early vote is 13.3 percentage points more Republican.
North Carolina’s early vote is 14.9 percentage points more Republican.
In Clark County, Nevada, it is 7.1 percent more Republican; in Washoe County, Nevada, it is 11 percent more Republican.
“The average of these states show that early voting has shifted from a D+16.6 partisan split to a D+1.7 partisan split for a Republican gain of +14.9% since 2008,” Charlie concludes. (...)
miércoles, 20 de octubre de 2010
Cámara: un repaso a 117 escaños
Jim Geraghty nos cuenta una por una cómo están las 117 carreras más competitivas a la Cámara de Representantes -de escaños actualmente ocupados por un demócrata.
(...) AL-2: Public Opinion Strategies puts Martha Roby ahead of incumbent Democrat Bobby Bright by 2; Bright is already declaring he won’t vote for Pelosi as speaker.
AR-1: The Hill puts Republican Rick Crawford ahead by 12; this is an open seat where Democrat Marion Berry is retiring.
AR-2: Democrat Vic Snyder is retiring and Republican Tim Griffin is the heavy favorite to replace him; an August poll put Griffin up 17.
AR-4: Arkansas Republicans look set for a monster year, but Democrat Mike Ross should survive the wave, holding off Republican Beth Ann Rankin.
AZ-1: The Hill puts Paul Gosar ahead of incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick by 7.
AZ-5: Last week, a GOP poll put David Schweikart narrowly ahead of incumbent Democrat Harry Mitchell.
AZ-7: In one of the great shocks of this cycle, Republican Ruth McClung released an internal poll showing her ahead of incumbent Raul Grijalva among likely voters. The DCCC suddenly decided to spend money here recently.
AZ-8: An early September poll had incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords and GOP challenger Jesse Kelly tied.
Continúa (...)
(...) AL-2: Public Opinion Strategies puts Martha Roby ahead of incumbent Democrat Bobby Bright by 2; Bright is already declaring he won’t vote for Pelosi as speaker.
AR-1: The Hill puts Republican Rick Crawford ahead by 12; this is an open seat where Democrat Marion Berry is retiring.
AR-2: Democrat Vic Snyder is retiring and Republican Tim Griffin is the heavy favorite to replace him; an August poll put Griffin up 17.
AR-4: Arkansas Republicans look set for a monster year, but Democrat Mike Ross should survive the wave, holding off Republican Beth Ann Rankin.
AZ-1: The Hill puts Paul Gosar ahead of incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick by 7.
AZ-5: Last week, a GOP poll put David Schweikart narrowly ahead of incumbent Democrat Harry Mitchell.
AZ-7: In one of the great shocks of this cycle, Republican Ruth McClung released an internal poll showing her ahead of incumbent Raul Grijalva among likely voters. The DCCC suddenly decided to spend money here recently.
AZ-8: An early September poll had incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords and GOP challenger Jesse Kelly tied.
Continúa (...)
martes, 19 de octubre de 2010
Cámara: ventaja del GOP se mantiene sólida
Una semana menos para las elecciones, y pocas variaciones en el Generic Congressional Ballot de Rasmussen y Gallup -preferencia de los votantes por un partido u otro en las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes. Rasmussen otorga a los republicanos una ventaja de 9 puntos (48% - 39%). Y Gallup les da una ventaja de 5 puntos (48% - 43%) entre votantes registrados y entre 11 y 17 puntos (53% - 42% y 56% - 39%) entre votantes probables (likely voters) dependiendo del modelo de participación.
Comparación con 2006 (gran victoria demócrata), 2002 (pequeña victoria republicana) y 1994 (gran victoria republicana):
(...) Gallup polling from the prior four midterm elections shows that significant movement can, but does not always, occur in the final month before Election Day. This was most pronounced in 2006, when the Democrats’ 23-point early October leads among both registered and likely voters dwindled to 11-point and 7-point leads, respectively, by the final pre-election week.
In early October 2002, the Democrats led by five points among registered voters and by one point among likely voters. In the final poll, they maintained a five-point lead among registered voters, but trailed Republicans by six points among likely voters — marking a seven-point swing in the race.
In the year that perhaps most closely parallels today, 1994, the Republicans led the Democrats in mid-October polling by 3 points among registered voters, and by 12 points among likely voters. In the end, the Republicans tied the Democrats among registered voters and led by 7 points among likely voters. (...)
Comparación con 2006 (gran victoria demócrata), 2002 (pequeña victoria republicana) y 1994 (gran victoria republicana):
(...) Gallup polling from the prior four midterm elections shows that significant movement can, but does not always, occur in the final month before Election Day. This was most pronounced in 2006, when the Democrats’ 23-point early October leads among both registered and likely voters dwindled to 11-point and 7-point leads, respectively, by the final pre-election week.
In early October 2002, the Democrats led by five points among registered voters and by one point among likely voters. In the final poll, they maintained a five-point lead among registered voters, but trailed Republicans by six points among likely voters — marking a seven-point swing in the race.
In the year that perhaps most closely parallels today, 1994, the Republicans led the Democrats in mid-October polling by 3 points among registered voters, and by 12 points among likely voters. In the end, the Republicans tied the Democrats among registered voters and led by 7 points among likely voters. (...)
sábado, 16 de octubre de 2010
Cámara: el DCCC no recompensa la lealtad
Politics trumps loyalty in Democratic House effort
(...) In a fundraising video in Ohio this week, Rep. Steve Driehaus lashed out at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for “walking away” from his race after he “had the guts” to cast tough votes for key measures.
The House campaign arm has in recent days canceled millions of dollars worth of advertising it had planned for Driehaus and other endangered Democrats including his fellow Ohioan Mary Jo Kilroy, Suzanne Kosmas in Florida, Betsy Markey in Colorado and Steve Kagen in Wisconsin. All of them voted for President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul and for legislation to curb carbon emissions — only to be savaged by Republicans on the campaign trail for doing so.
The list of Democratic candidates being lavished with national party help in the final days of the race includes many of the defectors on those marquee votes: Reps. Michael Arcuri in New York, Bobby Bright in Alabama, Travis Childers in Mississippi, Larry Kissell in North Carolina, Jim Marshall in Georgia and Glenn Nye in Virginia, among others.
Bright and Marshall have even said they wouldn’t vote to keep House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in her post. National Democrats are also spending freely to defend Rep. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, who opposed the climate bill and has run TV ads calling it “Nancy Pelosi’s energy tax.” (...)
(...) In a fundraising video in Ohio this week, Rep. Steve Driehaus lashed out at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for “walking away” from his race after he “had the guts” to cast tough votes for key measures.
The House campaign arm has in recent days canceled millions of dollars worth of advertising it had planned for Driehaus and other endangered Democrats including his fellow Ohioan Mary Jo Kilroy, Suzanne Kosmas in Florida, Betsy Markey in Colorado and Steve Kagen in Wisconsin. All of them voted for President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul and for legislation to curb carbon emissions — only to be savaged by Republicans on the campaign trail for doing so.
The list of Democratic candidates being lavished with national party help in the final days of the race includes many of the defectors on those marquee votes: Reps. Michael Arcuri in New York, Bobby Bright in Alabama, Travis Childers in Mississippi, Larry Kissell in North Carolina, Jim Marshall in Georgia and Glenn Nye in Virginia, among others.
Bright and Marshall have even said they wouldn’t vote to keep House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in her post. National Democrats are also spending freely to defend Rep. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, who opposed the climate bill and has run TV ads calling it “Nancy Pelosi’s energy tax.” (...)
viernes, 15 de octubre de 2010
Cámara: puede haber alguna sleeper por ahí
Jim Geraghty:
(...) Reliable GOP Source: Hey, you can’t print this, but we just had a poll come back saying that [House Democrat who everybody figured was pretty safe] is down 20.
Me: Well, that’s swell. But why can’t I use this?
Reliable GOP Source: We don’t think the Democrats know this guy is this much trouble, so we don’t want to tip them off.
Me: Well, thank you for sharing really cool information that I cannot share with readers.
Reliable GOP Source: I thought it might be helpful with you determining which challengers to watch. While it would be great to have you break this news, I think it’s more useful to us to keep the Democrats in the dark. (...)
(...) Reliable GOP Source: Hey, you can’t print this, but we just had a poll come back saying that [House Democrat who everybody figured was pretty safe] is down 20.
Me: Well, that’s swell. But why can’t I use this?
Reliable GOP Source: We don’t think the Democrats know this guy is this much trouble, so we don’t want to tip them off.
Me: Well, thank you for sharing really cool information that I cannot share with readers.
Reliable GOP Source: I thought it might be helpful with you determining which challengers to watch. While it would be great to have you break this news, I think it’s more useful to us to keep the Democrats in the dark. (...)
Suscribirse a:
Entradas (Atom)
